An Election Appeal

A girl advertised on the Internet that she was having a house party and attracted 200 guests. I don't expect to be that successful, but here's my internet appeal.

I'm going to hire a car and will be doing some intense political campaigning throughout the West Midlands between Thursday 26 April and Monday 30 April (when Ms PT arrives in the UK). I have an outline of what I'll be doing and I believe working as a team gets things done better and more enjoyably.

If you'd like to join me on the trail on any given day to assist the Tory cause/share political gossip that doesn't get put on the site, please mail me on praguetory@googlemail.com. We might even do a few video blogs.

The Labour Manifesto

As we plumb towards 10 years of Labour government, their record is laid bare for examination and their usual ploy of blaming the Tories doesn't wash. The people behind Tory Radio have had the splendid idea to look at Labour's 1997 manifesto and compare promises to reality. Not pretty, but I recommend a look.

Do You Like Solitude?

Just spent a week in Slovakia. We usually go there for Easter. We got the blessing of the local priest for our marriage and we sorted out the wedding reception, too. Being in Slovakia is a good chance to recharge and get new ideas. One came to mind which I hope to develop after the May elections.

This video is from just outside Ms PT's home village where we stay. Due to the contours of the land, this spot is completely private and can't be seen from the road. A stream runs along the meadow and I love the forested hillside that surrounds the plot. I like solitude and beauty. One day I will build a cottage here. The smells, sights and sounds of nature will be inspirational. It will be a great retreat to have. If people are interested in more posts about Eastern Slovakia, I would be happy to oblige. Let me know if you prefer me to talk politics.

May Elections In Birmingham

Hello - I'm back. Worryingly, readership figures appear unaffected by my absence.

Due to boundary changes, in 2004, all 120 seats in Birmingham were contested which resulted in the Conservative/Lib Dem coalition taking over from a Labour administration that had been in charge for 20 years. On May 3rd elections will take place in each of the city's 40 wards. Brummietory has a more detailed understanding of the political landscape than me and his predictions are a reasonable stab showing little movement from May 2006, but electoral progress due to 2004 being the base year. Here's a table showing Labour's decline and the rise of the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.


Predictions

Given that just a third of the seats are being contested, it is always unlikely that you will see seismic shifts in the political composition of the council in May, but Labour are likely to lose seats at the expense of the Tories. In a bit of a cop-out, my predictions on how the Tories will do are based around national polling. Emboldened are seats that would be gains.

8 Safe Seats - Sutton (X4), Edgbaston, Harborne, Bartley Green & Bournville
36% - Add Brandwood, Billesley, Weoley Castle & Northfield
38% - Erdington, Longbridge & Kings Norton
40% - Quinton
42% - Oscott
46% - Tyburn

I'm going to predict that the Tories will poll 41% nationally. I make Oscott a 50/50 chance and Quinton a 70/30 chance. Even if we don't win those two, 15 seats should make us the biggest party in Birmingham which will be worth celebrating.

Targets -

1. Tories to win 16 seats or more
2. Tories to win in popular vote (this didn't happen in May 2006 council elections in Brum despite a good set of results)
3. Labour to fail to win a single ward in the Labour held Parliamentary constituencies of Edgbaston (four Tories), Selly Oak (three Tories and one Lib Dem) , Hall Green (we're relying on Respect and Lib Dems here) and Northfield (four Tories).

Labour's Worst Case Scenario

Just for fun, but here's how Labour end up with just seven seats from the forty on offer.

Certain

The Tories have eight safe seats in the bag (see above).
The Libs will win the four Yardley seats, Hall Green, Perry Barr and Selly Oak

Running Total - Labour down to 25 seats

Highly Likely

lose four Con/Labour marginals up to and including Northfield
lose to Respect in Sparkbrook
lose to Lib Dems in Bordesley Green, Moseley

Running Total - Labour down to 18 seats

Highly Plausible

lose a further five Con/Labour marginals up to and including Oscott
lose to Lib Dems in Hodge Hill, Aston, Springfield

Running Total - Labour down to 10 seats

Long Shots

lose to Nationalists in Shard End
lose to Conservatives in Tyburn & Handsworth Wood (due to split Labour vote)

7 seats - BINGO

Big Picture

It's fairly likely that Labour will lose about a third of the seats they hold this time and the same can be predicted for 2008, meaning they will soon be contesting second place with the Lib Dems. People have long memories in politics and so after the electoral fraud and Labour's craven response that marred the 2004 local elections, no coalition in Birmingham involving Labour is conceivable for a generation. If you're a Labour activist in Birmingham, I recommend 2020 vision - it's the soonest you'll be having another sniff of power.

Conservative: what does it mean?

Conservative: a definition

1. Favouring traditional views and values; tending to oppose change.

2. Traditional or restrained in style

3. Moderate; cautious

4. Tending to conserve; preservative: the conservative use of natural resources.

Rock and Roll!!!!

Hardly Athletic Get Off To Winning Start

Hardly Athletic 2 Sunny Days 1

Ably captained by Robert, Hardly Athletic won their first ever game. Our lack of kit lulled our opponents and goals from Dean in the first half and Bobby in the second half from a penalty were enough to seal the win.


Here's a picture of me surrounded by the men in orange. Where are my team-mates? That's right, they were in the pub (see below).



After a walk to the pub that was arguably more tiring than the game itself, some of the team settled in at Fraktal Bar for a celebratory pivo. I'm off for a week. There may or may not be some guest posts in the meantime. Have a great Easter.

Party Funding Update

Hayden Philips Has Sent Me An E-Mail

It sets out some (very) outline proposals. Hayden's done his bit and has passed the buck to the main parties. On many levels, the principal proposals of the Party Funding Review are craven. Lots of minutiae bothers me such as his use of the term "pence per vote funding" when pound per vote funding would be more accurate, or his utterly amateurish ideas on enforcement of donation limits, or his manifold proposed exceptions in the rules for Labour, his wishy-washy ideas on spending... I could go on.

Big Picture

But, let's go big picture. Conservative estimates place the current amount of state funding of political parties at about £20m. In December 2006 a Communications Research survey found that just 9% of all respondents thought that more money should be given to political parties to fund their activities. What does Hayden think?

Financial Instability

Worryingly, the words stability/instability appear eight times in his report. For example, in the section "Why Public Funding?" we have this delight

"Financial instability is the enemy of healthy politics, and an injection of funds is merited if we are able to maintain public confidence in our democracy".

Allow me to rephrase.

"As a results of profligacy at election times caused by short termism the Labour Party is virtually bankrupt. Public confidence in our democracy has nothing to do with the amount of money spent at election times, but I can't find any other decent arguments for this steal"

Hayden Phillips suggests the additional public cost per annum will be £20 - £25m (see section 2). Hayden states that the future of party funding should be

"built on a broad consensus between the parties"

and suggests

"an agreement must be fair and sustainable. To that end it must tackle the two issues that remain in contention between the parties:

- the design of limit on donations: and
- controls on party spending"

As taxpayers, we are a party to the agreement (we get the *expletive* bill) and I can assure Hayden that these aren't the only issues that remain in contention.

What Would I Do?

What would I personally do? I would make it illegal for political parties to be in debt (no overdrafts, no private loans, no bank loans). That would eliminate financial instability. If a party hasn't raised enough money from their supporters for a campaign, they have to cut their cloth accordingly. Cap donations and make them more transparent by all means, but the state should otherwise keep their nose out of party business.

Real World

In the real world, Hayden Phillips has delivered a dog's breakfast on which the main parties could well struggle to negotiate an agreement. If they do, the only loser will be the taxpayer. Therefore, I want to see Philip Oppenheim's No Public Funding campaign swing into action and 18 Doughty Street and Conservative Home to oppose the stinking pile that has been put on the table. Power to the people. Hat tip anoneumouse at the Anglo-saxon Chronicle for the graphic.

Blog Round Up

All's back to normal. Blogging in the style of another blogger is fun for a day, but do it for an extended period could drive you nuts. I think I managed to synchronise with the target quite well. If readers found this fun (and readers were unanimous when I asked them whether I asked whether I should continue with my Tom Watson posts - I was the only one who voted against!), I might be persuaded to do it again at some point in the distant future.

Dizzy Thinks Then Posts

Dizzy has hit on a rich vein of form of late. I recommend all his recent posts, but especially his most recent on the Falklands War where the comment thread shows why the Left are unfit to run the country. They are? Damn.

Crime Statistics Scandal

Just as seriously, Tony Sharp has uncovered a crime statistics scandal. Not only have recorded detections been manipulated, but a great deal of scarce police resource has been misplaced in the process. Can't wait until the police bloggers get hold of that story - they'll be all over it like a rash. In my judgment there's a big chance that this one will hit the mainstream. And whilst we are on the theme of policing, the Tories are unveiling some excellent proposals.


Unsolved Riddle

Still nobody has succeeded in my guess the politician's quote puzzler which was set a few days ago. Who said this.

"I do think certain individuals are disposed to crime because of their genetic inheritance"

There are some clues on the other thread. As an additional clue, I will add that the politician wrote the text in his autobiography. Like my imaginary friend Hamer Shawcross I'm taking an Easter break. I'll be away from Thursday so I am looking for guest posters. I have a few lined up, but if you're interested, just let me know.

Ageism

Over the course of today, a fellow blogger has called me a "foolish foolish boy" and "my son". This is ageist nonsense and it is disgusting to see these type of attacks from the self-styled Left. Just to remind him of his bigoted prejudice Praguetory has decided to set up a reorientation programme called "Learn to love the young". Until this blogger mends his ways and promises not to use ageist abuse, I'll be calling him gramps.

Praguetory realises that teaching an old dog new tricks can be difficult, but is prepared to give it a go for the sake of the blogging communitee

Update

Poll is 4 - 1. I'm waiting for yay or nay to get to 10 before I do or don't post my next instalment.

Update II

Manic's has finally noticed that his post repeats itself. Would it be mean-spirited to suggest that this could have something to do with his age?

Happy Palm Sunday

Not much blogging today. In a minute I'm off to church for Palm Sunday. From 9.30 a group of us will be walking through the Mala Strana (Little Bank) part of town. I'll see if I can squeeze in an early lunch after church. Meeting an Icelandic Conservative at 1 for a coffee to discuss setting up a blog.

Then at 4 I'll be in the last training session before the start of "Hardly Athletic"'s inaugural football season (do you like the logo?). I wanted to sponsor the team, but one unnamed player objected to running around with Praguetory on his back.

At 6.30 I'm meeting up with a couple who are visiting Prague. Me and Ms PT met Jitka at the car rental place last time we were in Birmingham. The coincidences were incredible. They will be getting married in Prague on the same day as us (Sep 8th) and he also proposed this Christmas. Like me and Ms PT they started dating in August and he enjoys reading books and is typically English according to Jitka. Ok, that's all the coincidences so far, but as they (by chance) booked themselves in one of the closest hotels to where we live, we've agreed to meet up and find out what else we have in common. So far I've seen two April fool gags - none here I'm afraid. Laters.