Own Goal Campaigning Posters

Can it really be so difficult for political parties and organisations to put together campaign posters that don't harm their own case?

Exhibit One From Labour


Sounds good?

Exhibit Two From Unite


My instinctive reaction was that looks sharp, good. It's an interesting campaigning angle to attack your opponent for making cuts when a clear majority of the public support that position. Makes you think that the Tories are going to be the best party to do the work you think is required.

In the interests of balance, I don't think that the Tory posters that only run on Brown's image and 'achievements' are very special.

Time For Change

Back in 2007 the Conservative Party revealed that they would be using the "Time For Change" slogan. Here in Birmingham Ladywood we've adopted it in our literature. As the graphic shows, so have the local Lib Dems.


You'd have thought this attractive pair would be able to rely on their natural charm. ;-)

Message From Peter Mandelson

Some jester put me on the Labour Party mailing list. Here's Peter Mandelson's latest message to Labour loyalists. I can't tell whether he's trying to convince readers or himself...

Let me start by thanking you for the superhuman efforts you have been putting in over the last few months.

Your individual efforts have proved a formidable counter to the millions being ploughed into marginal constituencies by Lord Ashcroft’s Tories, and the million-pound airbrushed poster campaigns being run by our opponents.

The Tories may have a significant financial advantage but as your efforts have shown this need not be a barrier to getting our message across. This is a task for every member – this needs to be a word of mouth election.

As the ‘Shallow’ Chancellor, George Osborne, was bragging in his Guardian interview on Saturday, the Tories think they have it in the bag and the election is won before a single vote is cast.

So, what happened last week? Yes, the Tories got favourable coverage and that is a reminder to everyone that we remain the underdogs in this election. But they did so by putting politics before economics, putting their short-term political interests before the longer-term economic interests of the country. They would rather score points than stick to policies that would secure Britain’s economic recovery. When things get choppy for Mr. Cameron his first thought is to abandon fiscal discipline and his commitment to tackling the deficit, and instead reach out for crowd pleasing about-turns.

What is striking about him is that his response to any pressure is to take the soft option and the easy road. This is a far cry from the bold heir-to-Blair he first advertised. But easy politics does not make for sound economics. And it isn’t leadership.

Unfunded promises made today can lead to economic calamity tomorrow. The Tories have underlined the central plank in Labour’s campaign – that, through our toughness, we are best placed to secure recovery.

So my point f or you is this: the headlines achieved by the Tories are also an opportunity for us to show that we have guts, that when the going gets tough we make tough and serious choices that put the country first. A rise in NICs may not be popular but it is necessary, and therefore it is the right thing for the country – unless a hefty VAT rise is to be put in its place or even bigger swingeing cuts of public services.

Just remember that, two weeks ago, in a Saturday morning speech, Cameron was hailing himself as the new Thatcher, the man to stand up to vested interests and take the difficult decisions however unpopular. Well, if a week is a long time in politics a fortnight is an eternity in Cameronland.

Our mission is to secure our economic recovery. Our task is to hold our nerve and stick to our guns. Our most important mission is to secure the recovery. Nothing must get in the way. This is the critical issue of this election – who has the better policies and judgement to lock in recovery.

Gordon and Alistair must continue to make the right calls as they did when we were hit by the global financial crisis. They were the first movers on a plan that averted a Great Depression in the global economy, and their decisions set us on the road to recovery.

Through the resilience and sacrifice of the British people, the impact of the recession was blunted and shortened. As a consequence, the rate of unemployment, business failures, and home repossessions has been significantly lower than under the Tory recession of the 1990s (and with lower mortgage rates too).

Cameron-Osborne got all these big economic judgements wrong. They would have let Northern Rock go to the wall. They opposed the fiscal stimulus and the real help we gave businesses and families so we could get through this recession together.

Now they are getting it wrong on the recovery. Cut through George Osborne’s hubris and you will see him confi rming that he plans to take £6-7 billion out of the economy this year in his ‘emergency’ budget, even though private demand remains weak.

To take this amount of spending power out of the economy straightaway – when the economy needs support and the road ahead will be bumpy - would pull the rug from under the recovery. This ‘emergency’ budget would put the economy straight back into the crisis room.

Now is not the time to take this sharp right turn off the road to recovery. The consequence if we do would be felt in people’s jobs and people’s living standards and young people’s training and job opportunities. This is the threat Cameron and Osborne pose.

Protecting frontline services

Once we are through this year we have to tackle the deficit in a way that is credible, responsible and fair and that protects the frontline services people rely on – schools, hospitals, childcare and police numbers.

The rise in National Ins urance – which we propose, not this year, but in 2011 once recovery is secured – is a necessary measure to enable us to restore the public finances whilst maintaining the public services.

Every businessman I have spoken to this year has told me that sorting out the national finances – doing so over time and not in one go – is the priority. That is what the National Insurance increase is about. I know some in business object, just as universities objected to the modest belt-tightening I have asked for from that sector.

But Government is about hard choices and we cannot shy away from them if we want to tackle the deficit and protect schools, hospitals, childcare and the police.

Frontline schools, police numbers and Sure Start will not be protected by the Tories. That much we know. If you are a parent with children in school and whose children go to Children’s Centres you should know before you cast your vote that these budgets will be cut under the Tor ies, not protected.

The Tories can say what they like. But a promise to cut the deficit further than Labour, cut taxes and sustain public spending doesn’t add up – it is a three card Tory con trick.

For the Tories, change is now only a slogan

So securing recovery and protecting frontline services will be on the ballot paper come election day.

And they are both under threat from a Tory party that is showing itself to be a party little changed from the past.

Look at their platform: immediate cuts that would put jobs and services at risk; unfunded tax cuts; an inheritance tax giveaway for the 3,000 richest estates in the country, whilst middle income mums have their child tax credits and Child Trust funds taken away; a married couples allowance restored that even Ken Clarke doesn’t agree with.

How is this different from the agenda of Michael Howard or William Hague when they were Tory leaders?

Real change promised by David Cameron at the start of his leadership has been junked. Change is now no more than a PR slogan.

This will be a big choice election

It is a choice between securing the recovery with Labour or immediate Tory cuts that could tip us back into recession.

Between protecting frontline services with Labour or an unchanged Tory Party salivating at the prospect of taking an axe to them.

Between the granite-like resilience and big brain of Gordon Brown or the plastic PR and wobbliness of David Cameron.

In all this we should remember the power of a clear, consistent, disciplined message from being on your side, standing up for hardworking families and the public’s deep fear of cuts in vital public services. Of course they hate the idea of waste and inefficiency. And we should not shy away from explaining what we are doing to make savings.

But when it comes down to it, people do not trust the Tories to be on their side. They believe the Tories want to cut public services whether it is necessary or not. Some in the media may wish to obscure this fact but the public’s attitude is deeply felt.

Thanks again for all your hard work. We have a tough campaign ahead of us. But this is a campaign that matters for the millions of people we came into politics to serve. We really are in the fight of our lives.

Thank you

Peter

Quote Of The Day

I didn't send in a letter of resignation because I would have needed a publisher

Ex-Labour MP resigns from his party. Source.

Truing Up UK plc’s Accounts Is The First Step In Tackling The Deficit

I believe that a key lesson we can learn from our local government electoral successes is that when we take over from Labour administrations, we need to communicate to the electorate the true nature of the Labour legacy. I'd like to put the case for truing up UK plc’s accounts as soon as we get a chance to open the books.

Anyone who consumes political news can see that Labour is eager to frame the economic debate - which is the key battleground at the coming election - in terms of Tory spending plans. This is a problem for us. The Labour government has shown that they will unleash the machinery of a politicised senior Civil Service to attack specific ideas, but being overly vague on our deficit reduction plans sends a poor message to voters.

In respect of the inevitable future spending reductions, the media have taken up this what/when/how line of questioning on Labour’s behalf, and time after time we see Tory spokespeople on our screens walking a delicate tightrope between realism about and over-enthusiasm for cuts. It rarely looks pretty and in the context of a deficit of trillions, has, at times, descended into heated arguments over line items which are, in relative terms, minutiae.

The simple truth is that without sight of the books, we won’t know the true extent of the deficit problem or be able to diagnose the consequent action required. To fight on this territory before the election is like going into battle blind-folded, and it isn’t good strategy.

Therefore we should seek to reframe this debate by describing our approach to deficit reduction. Whilst certain cuts can and should be made from day one of a Conservative government, the larger part of the deficit reduction programme needs more groundwork.

In my view, the first step in this programme is to true up the national accounts. It may seem like a long time ago, but New Labour’s golden rule was that debt should not exceed 40% of GDP. First mentioned by Brown in the 1990s for over a decade, many major government projects and policies have been structured in ways with adherence to this rule as a prime objective. Classifying spending as investment, PFI projects where unavoidable future costs are not recorded as government liabilities and the non-recognition of future pension liabilities are the best known tools in the government’s box of accounting tricks, but they may be just the tip of a very nasty iceberg. Like Enron, the UK government has used the letter rather than the spirit of the law to present their numbers in a favourable way.

To reveal a fairer picture of our finances, we should engage an independent firm to prepare a May 7 2010 UK plc balance sheet under private sector standards valuing our assets at their market value and recording our liabilities in full. A summary of the adjustments made to take the leap from our predecessors’ records to get to this truer picture should not be difficult to set out.
Armed with this realistic information, we can have a proper public debate about future fiscal decisions. It may well be the case that after ring-fenced budgets and unavoidable commitments, the percentage cuts required in other areas to get our finances back on track are even greater than previously estimated or advertised. Or we may need to renegotiate onerous contracts entered into by the previous government. But that’s a question for the future.

These interminable arguments about what, when and where to cut which do so much to switch off the electorate can be extinguished, if instead, we answer such questions by describing our approach. It can also be used to put the onus on Labour on whether or not they support our sensible approach. If we can put this inane deficit debate to bed, perhaps we can focus our attention on the important business of recreating the excellent conditions for economic growth in the private sector which we provided last time we were in government.

Another reason for taking the approach I describe is to manage public expectations. If we don’t go through this exercise, I fear that financial grenades will be exploding for years to come. I’d hate to see us caught in the same cycle of obfuscation and form over substance that we have come to expect under New Labour. We wouldn’t be forgiven by the electorate for that.

Has Erdington Labour Party Been Infiltrated?

In Jack Dromey (aka Mr Harriet Harman) the Birmingham Erdington branch of the Labour Party has just chosen the perfect Parliamentary candidate for the Tories.

What do his comrades within the Labour Party say about the union baron and spouse of the Deputy Prime Minister?

One opponent in the selection contest for Erdington. Ansar Ali Khan said.

I am not a relative of Tony Blair, Gordon Brown or Harriet Harman and I am not three years from retirement age.

Source.

And from another opponent, Steve Bedser

The view I have of an MP doing a good job is that they are grounded in the constituency they represent.

Source.

And local Labour ward councillor Mike Sharp

I am against anyone coming in from London or elsewhere, no matter how important they are. It should be a local person, someone from the constituency.

Source.

Back in his hometown of London, what do they say about him? Labour Party insiders call him.

lazy and stupid.

Source.

I am sure he looks forward to further ringing endorsements. ;-)

Putting aside the union backing, his family connections, and his lack of proximity to Birmingham, my question is different. Why would voters trust a man who 'knew nothing' about 14 MILLION POUNDS loans for lordships when it was under his nose? To support an energetic, young, candidate who lives in the middle of the constituency and has a track record of representing the electorate of Erdington, join the campaign for Bobby Alden.

Ladywood Team Meet DC

From left to right we have your host, the party leader, Nusrat Ghani (Ladywood PPC), Mohammed Shahban (Nechells Ward PPC) and Sharon Pennant (Ladywood Ward PPC). As I'm the only one not up for election this year, that makes me the odd one out.

Cast Change Over At Lolitics

With just minutes left before midnight for his party, the Honourable member for Birmingham Erdington has decided to retire. His excuse for this decision is to campaign to be the elected mayor for Birmingham - a job which doesn't yet exist. Others may recall that neither Boris Johnson or Frank Dobson stood down as MPs when they were attempting to become Mayors of London. Indeed, it seems like being an MP would be a better platform. Of greater importance is the fact that Sion-droyd was a key character at lolitics. I doubt he will ever be reincarnated as mayor-man.

Chairman Of Ladywood Conservatives

Yesterday I was elected as chairman of Birmingham Ladywood Conservatives. The constituency of Ladywood is the closest thing to Birmingham Central. 2010 should be an exciting time to be involved. In addition to national and local elections, this autumn sees the return of the Conservative Party conference to Ladywood constituency. Mail the Committee at ladywoodconservatives@googlemail.com if you would like to get involved...

2010 & All That

For the first time since 1997, we enter a new year certain that we will have a general election. The last time we entered a new year with 100% certainty that we would have a chance of getting a better government, you have to go back to 1979. Destroying Labour at the ballot box is what I call once in a generation opportunity. Here's a few NYE's texts I received.

2010 - our year of deliverance. To victory, comrades.

I think next year will be a good year.. Can't think why.

Here's for a return to a genuine free market. Hayek and Friedman we need you.

It will be a Happy New Year if we get a change of government.

I am thinking of making a few resolutions. These will be mainly based around effective time management - e.g. less online chess.

In terms of predictions, my wife is expecting a baby in May so I hope that comes to pass. If kicking is a good sign, it's doing well.

At the national level, I am expecting the Conservative Party to become the biggest party and Labour to slip to well under 200 seats. I don't think that the timing of the GE is especially important, but as a rule of thumb the later Labour go, the grislier it will be for them. Expect the following discernable electoral trends to be discussed at length after the election.


1. I expect that the polling lead over Labour will exceed 1987, but the Tories will either win a tiny majority winning around 330 seats or if they fall just short they will coalesce with one or some of PC/SNP/Irish unionist parties. This will prompt much analysis and expedite the boundary review which will lead to 10% cut in the number of MPs.

2. Disappearance of Labour in 'the South' outside of London. Labour currently hold close to 50 seats in the Eastern, South-West and South-East sections of the country. See this map. I expect them to keep one of the Bristol seats, Slough and Luton North, but if they can't magic up at least 30 more wins in these areas, they won't be able to keep their majority. They won't. Cue discussions about whether Labour is truly a national party.

3. The Lib Dems will do better than expected. Outside the south-west they will make small gains sometimes on large swings against Labour. Their best results will come in the north-east. They will get just short of 100 seats.

4. Largest anti-Labour swings in the West and East Midlands. Watch for places like Cannock Chase, Warwickshire North and Birmingham Erdington. Up north, the biggest surprise will come in Yorkshire where Ed Balls will lose in Morley & Outwood.

5. The growth of 'the others' will manifest itself in a number of ways. Labour and Conservative combined will fall below 65% of the total vote. Secondly, for the first time ever, a number of English seats will be won with less than a third of the vote (Brighton Pavilion, Birmingham Hall Green, Derby North and Norwich South spring to mind). NB - It would be interesting to have a betting market on the seat with the lowest winning vote share. UKIP will take second place in a number of 'safe' Conservative seats.

Gordon Brown's departure will be an amusing sideshow. Initially, he will indicate his plan to stay on for some time to oversee an 'orderly hand-over', but this position will become untenable and he will have to resign within days of his General Election defeat.