05 March 2007

Empathising With Lib Dems

Usually, I find it hard to empathise with Lib Dems, but I'm going to give it a go. Let's say you're a Lib Dem MP in a Labour wasteland with the Tories breathing down your neck. Your Scottish leader just did a conference speech attacking Cameron and setting out the five conditions Labour would need to meet for the Dems to coalesce with them after the next election.

I would be LIVID. After that speech, it is crystal clear that a vote for the Libs will be a vote to keep Labour in power. Vote Ming, get Gordon. The following 20 MPs are most at risk from Tories mopping up the anti-Labour vote in their area. I can't believe they will allow Ming to kill their careers. The choice for them is stark - mutiny or retirement.

Sandra Gidley - Romsey & Southampton North (Maj 100)
Lorely Burt - Solihull - 300
Tim Farron - Westmorland & Lonsdale 300
Jeremy Browne - Taunton 600
Tom Brake - Carshalton & Wallington - 1000
Chris Huhne - Eastleigh - 1000
Paul Keetch - Hereford & South Herefordshire - 1000
David Heath - Somerton & Frome - 1000
Martin Horwood - Cheltenham - 2000
Adrian Sanders - Torbay - 2000
Dan Rogerson - Cornwall North - 3000
Mike Hancock - Portsmouth South - 3000
Paul Burstow - Sutton & Cheam - 3000
Roger Williams - Brecon & Radnorshire - 4000
Susan Kramer - Richmond Park - 4000
John Pugh - Southport - 4000
Don Foster - Bath - 5000
Nicholas Harvey - Devon North - 5000
Annette Brook - Dorset Mid & Poole North - 5000

I should note that there are Lib/Con coalitions that have operated well. I wander what John Hemming Birmingham MP and Lib Dem Councillor thinks of this.

Update - The names were based on 2005 results. Factual edits have been made as Cheadle is no longer marginal. Of course, many of the above seats may also be impacted by boundary changes/MPs standing down etc.

6 comments:

Shotgun said...

I'd never heard such utter defeatist rubbish before this and they will be decimated..and good fucking thing too.

PoliticalHack said...

With my political observers hat on, I've commented on this before. Labour should be under threat from a revived Tory party, but I also suspect that the LDs could be given a thorough kicking next time round.

If you run the polling figures through Baxter's online calculator (a rough and ready tool at the best of times) the results spell real disaster for the LDs, with up to half of their seats turning blue. I doubt it will be that serious, but I think 15 or so LDs will fall to the Tories next time round. I suspect that the 5000 majorities of Foster, Harvey and Brook are a little beyond the Tories, but the rest are certainly winnable.

They are a party of opposition and the natural home of the protest vote. Now the Tories have decided to give us a fight, the LDs will be squeezed from both political wings.

Wait until nearer the election and I expect a couple of LDs to jump to the Tory side.

Newmania said...

thats a great post P really informative

Anonymous said...

A few inaccuracies - Sandra not Sarah Gidley and I think Huhne's majority is less than 600? Are any of those MPs standng down - if so the incumbency factor is lost as well which will make a real difference in some places. And let's not forget damage done in winchester despite the 'healthy' majority.

A dreadful speech and dreadful organisation preceding and following. Who on earth gave the briefing? It seems as if the internal press office is getting the blame, but my guess is it's someone who thinks their view matters, but is sufficiently anonymous to get away with 'spinning'. And in this case very badly. any suggestions?

JRD168 said...

Votee lib Dem, get tory. I hope they get a kicking, buggered up my hopes of a decent tram system in brum as well...

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/ed_vaizey/2006/05/a_libcon_coalition_not_quite.html

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article314266.ece

Praguetory said...

Thanks anon - I pulled everything from here. Chris Huhne's majority was 568.