A Bias For Inaction

As mentioned last week, I have some posts on small government saved up. To set the scene, several of my favourite political insights are summed up by the following Reagan quote.

The nine most terrifying words in the English language are, 'I'm from the
government and I'm here to help.'

If uttered by a Labour politician it would certainly send a shudder - Caroline (Supernanny) Flint (honourable mentions to Brown and Blair) being the modern British politician who has, in my opinion, come furthest on the trajectory of taking state "help" to its natural totalitarian conclusion.

It's a most unfortunate paradox that although at the micro level, it is preferable to have political representatives who are both willing and able to serve/act for their electorate, at the macro level preferable to have a political leadership with a natural and confident bias for inaction.

Labour's legislative frenzy (98% of which is done via statutory instrument - i.e. without a full Parliamentary debate) provides evidence that they are an excellent example of a statist government. The Tory's approach to the public services and ideas such as elected police sheriffs and abolition of regional assemblies are initiatives that could reverse the tide. These are appealing ideas, but we need to communicate better with the electorate on how different our approach to governing will be.

More On Harriet Harman

Congratulations to Harriet Harman on winning the Deputy Leadership contest with a barn-storming 18.95% of the vote. It appears that most pundits misjudged how second and third choices would affect the result. When I call her mediocre yesterday, I was being very charitable. Check out her the conclusion to her latest blog entry.

Harriet is asserting that four journos have set out her political agenda more clearly than she could!!! So, don't bother with Harriet's blog - its most worrying feature is that it is actually written by Harriet according to its webmaster. Go straight to the vague and vacuous delphic pronouncements from the name-checked scribes.

Both Johann Hari and Jackie Ashley (horrendous article) take a wild swipe at John Prescott and Alan Johnson's closeness to him. Whilst Johann seems to think that Harriet's policies will mean mothers magically spending more time with kids (presumably by regulating their jobs out of existence) Jackie is pushing for the government to encourage more 24/7 workplaces which sounds pretty close to hell.

The main thrust of Polly Toynbee's article is Harriet's mission to add more costs and regulation onto private businesses and a vague targetting of the "filthy rich". I have to admit I almost warmed to Harriet in reading Rachel Sylvester's piece. I hope Harriet follows through on her stated opposition to grace and favour houses.

The fact that Harriet is particularly attuned to "women's" issues such as child-care, maternity leave and domestic violence is fine and could be used by Labour to electoral advantage. The problem is her "solutions" whack other groups namely men, businesses and the taxpayer and usually do not even effectively tackle the issue at hand.

The Labour Manifesto

As we plumb towards 10 years of Labour government, their record is laid bare for examination and their usual ploy of blaming the Tories doesn't wash. The people behind Tory Radio have had the splendid idea to look at Labour's 1997 manifesto and compare promises to reality. Not pretty, but I recommend a look.

Slave Labour

The best documentary I have seen lately is a film called Slave Labour by Danny Dewsbury. It's a short film by and about Danny. Like many others, he's trying to break into the media industry. In August 2006, he was offered a job by the Labour Party to do some work experience in the lead up to the Labour Party National Conference... The film features John Hutton (and his special advisor John Woodcock), Hazel Blears (and her assistant Emmet Regan), Hillary Armstrong, Allan Johnson, Tessa Jowell and ends with a John Prescott cameo.

Danny is a talented director and won an award for best documentary at the 2006 National Student Film Festival. This year, Danny's Slave Labour film will be showing next week at the same festival at University of West England in Bristol. His film is also showing in Oxford/Milton Keynes on 19th March at the Oxdox festival. The film is definitely good enough for a bigger audience and I hope that Danny achieves that. I won't spoil the story, suffice to say that it is an incredibly powerful critique of New Labour.

Orderly Transition?

Despite my disinterest, maybe Labour and Brown's poor polling is having an effect. Michael Meacher has announced today that he is going to "challenge" Gordon Brown for the leadership. Also on the loony left, John O'Donnell has already set out his platform for the leadership. I would like to see a candidate from the left challenge Brown, if only as a reminder to the public of what real Labour is all about. However, Meacher entering the race is the political equivalent of brothers rolling around on the floor fighting (pictured). It's almost beyond parody. I will update this post should Meacher provide some amusing soundbites at his midday press conference. For more detail and to watch the drama unfold, I recommend Kerron's place.

Labour Deputy Leader

For some reason the waste of space position of deputy leader/PM is attracting a lot of interest from Labour politicians. So far, the only candidates running a half-way competent campaign are Jon Cruddas and Hillary Benn. It looks like David Miliband's QT gaffe means that he will have to play the long game. Both Johnson and Hain have had damaging leaks very early on and appear to have insufficiently broad support to mount a serious challenge. The potential female candidates (no pun intended) of Blears, Harman or Jowell are frankly not even rated by their colleagues. Straw is well-respected inside and outside of the party, but is probably hoping for a lower media profile at this time and Clarke (who has been floating ideas to the right of the Tories) is far too realistic to have a hope of charming the economic illiterates that comprise the Labour membership.

Vote in my poll for who would be the best candidate to fill Prescott's cowboy boots from the Tory point of view?

Update 1 - Harriet email problems

Is being an email mug the latest fashion? Harriet Harman has mailed a Tory council leader, Brian Silvester to ask for his support! Brian, fell free to vote here.

Update 2 - Useful Idiot Needed

Just for clarity, I'm not looking for a good candidate for this non-role and please don't take this poll seriously. Personally, I've yet to vote and am finding it very tricky. Which useful idiot to choose?

Winning Hearts And Minds

Here's a couple of sensible quotes about education and teachers that mirror my views.

Education is the transmission of civilization.

Good teachers are costly, but bad teachers cost more.

A blogger who holds the Stalinist-sounding post of "political education officer" has caught my eye. As the website for the organisation to which he/she belongs to lists no events or campaigns for this year, I’m hoping that he/she doesn’t manage to do much "teaching" based on the following views expressed on the website to which he/she contributes.

On the Queen

"Do you think the French have any guillotines left that we could borrow?"


On the Klu Klux Klan

"Aka the Republican Party"

On the Tory response to Hitler

"Appeasement of their fascist fellow-travellers on the continent"

If you’re interested to join this group, they are looking to fill the following vacant roles. Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgendered (LGBT) Officer and Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) Officer. Free membership may be available to the first person to guess the organisation. Clue - it isn't the Labour group on Sandwell Council.

Update

Well done to Haddock for matching the views to the organisation (See comments). Their posts on Europe, the Queen and Education are particularly revealing.

Unsteady

Continuing my series on Birmingham Labour MPs, here are the three Birmingham Labour MPs whose prospects at the next election are most unclear. I can’t imagine anyone wanting to go for a beer with any of them, so don't get too excited. Here they are in no particular order.

1. Stephen McCabe – Hall Green (TBC as Selly Oak candidate)
Swing to unseat - N/A seat boundaries have changed so much.
As Lynne Jones has announced her intention to stand down, I am assuming that Stephen who is the current MP for Hall Green will be selected for Birmingham Selly Oak. Although uninspiring, Stephen is a safe pair of hands for Labour. However, the boundary changes bring this seat into range for the Tories. After the May elections, it is expected that none of the councilors in the redrawn constituency will be Labour. The majority will be Conservative. This seat is very winnable for the Tories next time especially as I don’t expect the Liberals to go very hard here.

2. Roger Godsiff – Sparkbrook & Small Heath (TBC as Hall Green candidate)
Swing to unseat – N/A seat boundaries have changed so much.
Roger is the sitting MP in the inner city parts of the wholly reworked Hall Green seat. Potentially, he faces strong opposition in the more affluent parts of the seat from the Lib Dems and from the highly ethnic areas from Respect and the Lib Dems. Off-line, I’ve been told by a respected local source that Respect’s campaign is likely to be well supported in this seat by disillusioned Labour supporters the Socialist Alliance. I hate to be pessimistic about Tory prospects, but a top three finish would be an achievement here. Very difficult to call the winner at this stage.

3. Richard Burden - Northfield
Swing to unseat – 10.4% to Conservatives
This is Conservative target number 197. Although I think Labour’s 2005 showing was buoyed by a pre-election bribe injection of funds, which the government have recently reneged upon, the required swing is large (although a similar swing occurred in 1979). This seat is virtually unaffected by boundary changes and Richard Burden is quietly effective. Despite dominating local political representation, the Tories would need a first-class candidate and campaign to mount a serious challenge.

GOING

There are three MPs in Birmingham that look like they are going next time. It’s an unfortunate coincidence for Labour, that it is likely that all of three female Labour MPs elected in 2005 won’t be around after the next election, although it is expected that the Ladywood reselection will have an all-women shortlist.

1. Clare Short – Ladywood
After 23 years in the House Of Commons Clare announced at the end of last year that she will not be standing for Labour at the next election
Swing requirement – 10.3% to Lib Dems – as the issues around the Iraq war fade, Labour are reasserting their authority in the Ladywood seat at the local level. Although the selection process should make interesting viewing, a hat-stand with a red rosette could get in here. Labour will regain this seat at the next election.

2. Lynne Jones – Selly Oak
Labour lose one seat as a result of the redrawing of constituency boundaries. Three Labour seats into two does not go and Lynne Jones is the fall gal. She has announced her intention to stand down at the end of this Parliament to spend more time with the family and due to the challenging reselection process that she would have faced.

3. Gisela Stewart – Edgbaston
Swing to unseat – 2.8% to Conservatives
This is Conservative target no. 47. Gisela might well fall on a national swing next time, but other factors make her even more vulnerable. Deirdre Alden, the popular Conservative PPC is a local councillor and also stood in 2005. Furthermore, local Conservative activists have become significantly more energized of late. Increasingly right-wing, Gisela receives fanmail from conservative conservatives. Her best hope to remain in Parliament is to go the whole hog and defect to the Conservatives to fight a nearby seat.

Astonishing Prediction

In 2005, Birmingham returned nine Labour MPs. Since then a third have resigned from office or the Parliamentary party and one of that number is also a national laughing stock after his aborted attempt at satire on YouTube.

If I was a Labour member, I’d be horrified. Personally, I’ve been speculating about something in the water. I’ve decided to profile the fortunes and prospects of these nine sitting MPs. Here’s the roll of honour with their current seats and my favourite link pertaining to them.

Edgbaston – Gisela Stuart
Erdington – Sion Simon
Hall Green – Steve McCabe
Hodge Hill – Liam Byrne
Ladywood – Clare Short
Northfield – Richard Burden
Perry Barr – Khalid Mahmood
Selly Oak – Lynne Jones
Sparkbrook & Small Heath – Roger Godsiff

My astonishing prediction is that less than half of the above will be Labour MPs after the next general election. I’m going to do a more detailed rundown on three at a time, so before I start, please contribute any relevant comments.

An Incredible Candidate For Labour Leader

As I have blogged recently, I think it would be good for Labour if Gordon Brown was challenged for the leadership of the party by a credible opponent. To date there is only one Labour MP who has publicly put himself in the frame. Below are seven policies that Labour leftie John McDonnell is campaigning on at his John4Leader website:

1. The withdrawal of British troops from Iraq and Afghanistan.
2. The end to privatisation of public services.
3. A Real Living Minimum Wage of at least £7 an hour.
4. A green energy policy based on renewable power sources
5. An increase in the Basic State Pension from £84.25 to £114 a week.
6. Defence of comprehensive education and the abolition of student tuition fees.
7. The restoration of trade union rights and civil liberties.

None of these policies look anything like those on offer from Labour or any of the mainstream parties, but I did think of one British political party where his policy ideas would be well received. Sure enough, on my first visit to the BNP's main website a look at their policies and articles confirmed to me that John's stance on the emboldened items are broadly similar to the BNP's although I couldn't confirm one way or another on points 4 and 6.

Judging by the details of Kerron Cross' startling account, John has no problem with using jackboots. So I would like to know at what point John becomes embarassed to represent a party whose policies are so massively differently from his? Maybe he should join the BNP and try to change them from within. But would they take him?

Let's see who gets more offended by my comparison - John and his fellow travellers or the BNP. All contributors to the debate welcome.

Mind Your Ps and Ks

As predicted here John McTernan, director of Labour's political operations has been interviewed for a second time about covering things up "gaps in evidence".

The journey to where we are today has seemed long and arduous, but this Gulf Times article is a quick and easy way for you to refresh on the background and get up-to-date with the unfolding drama.

The image from Beau Bo D'Or (hat tip) must go down as one of the most elegant pieces of visual satire in recent memory. I'm just happy to have an excuse to repost it here.

Renewal

Feeling charitable and safe in the knowledge that my viewpoint will have next to nil resonance in the Labour party I'm going to chuck a few home truths their way. The theme I want to discuss is renewal. I've been bamboozled by this buzzword ever since it became a mantra amongst Labour politicians and supporters. To me renewal means deep and meaningful change (usually) in response to a new environment. Therefore the talk of renewal within Labour has appeared absurd to me for several reasons.

The First Step Is Recognising There Is A Problem

Firstly and probably most importantly, I don't think that there is any real recognition of a need for change within the party. Sure, disillusioned activists have been peeling away for a whole host of reasons, but I haven't seen anything approaching a movement or alternative vision from the remaining party faithful (and I don't include John McDonnell). There are a few isolated voices at LabourHome making surprisingly sensible noises about specific areas of failure (e.g. immigration, policing) but there doesn't seem to be adequate introspection, honesty or even common sense for these calls to be taken seriously and crystallise into something meaningful. And when you think about how the likes of me will crow when Labour take on yet more Tory policies I can understand that it is psychologically painful.

I doubt that anything short of a crisis will shake the acceptance of the status quo - and when you think about how bad the May 2006 elections were for Labour it's hard to imagine what this crisis could look like.

Brown's Limitations

Secondly, the word renewal has been synonymous with an emerging Brown leadership. This association is surely a triumph of hope over experience. Not only is it hard to imagine how a Brown premiership can be sold to the public as a break with the past, but just as crucially, it's hard to imagine that Brown is fit for the purpose of renewal. For a start, the tinkering and deceptiveness of the Blair reign suited Brown to a tee - why are Labour investing hope in this Caledonian changing his tartan? Even if he did make a real effort to change, I'm afraid that he won't pull it off.

The ideal script for this Tory is as follows. Brown will be crowned without any debate or challenging of his ideas. Anything more than cosmetic change will be neither desired nor sought by Brown and no new philosophy will define his term. Sure, he'll have saved up a few headline-grabbers for the tabloid readers, but I fear that they will rightly be seen as gimmicks - he has little public goodwill to rely on.

The renewal concept looks like being one of those things that seemed like a good idea at the time back when Labour supporters of all hues could project their dreams onto a Brown premiership. I think this dashed promise will backfire on Brown both within his party and at large. Anyway, comments from across the political spectrum welcome as always. What do you reckon?