Labour Party On Tilt

Tilt is described as follows on wikipedia

Tilt is a poker term for a state of mental confusion or frustration in which a player adopts a less than optimal strategy, usually resulting in the player becoming over-aggressive... Placing an opponent on tilt or dealing with being on tilt oneself is an important aspect of poker. It is a relatively frequent occurrence due to frustration, animosity against other players, or simply bad luck. Experienced players recommend learning to recognize that one is experiencing tilt and avoid allowing it to influence one’s play.

The expenses row seems to have precipitated a tilt-like madness in the Labour Party from the painful process involved in getting the expenses published, to Gordon's retracted youtube, from the eve of an election resignation to blacked-out claims. The exposure of these expenses on any government's watch would have been deeply damaging, but the unhinged reaction of Brown's clowns is making things even more grisly for their beloved party.

Clear evidence of Labour whips arm-twisting MPs to back the anti-reform candidate for Speaker might just be the final straw for the public. I am afraid to say that this story may be a self-fulfilling prophesy. After all, it is a secret vote and theoretically Labour can force through their choice of Speaker. Machiavellian Tories may decide to vote for her on the basis that they may calculate that their party will be the beneficiaries of the public outrage that would follow her appointment.

From the very start of this process over a month ago, I made it clear that my favourite choice for Speaker is Richard Shepherd. None of the objections to his candidacy that I have heard have been anything other than cosmetic. Late backing from Guido and Douglas Carswell is not likely to help his chances. Whilst some Tories may back Beckett to make Labour look bad, I contend that the lack of support for a Tory like Shepherd on the Labour benches is due to the fact that his clarity and integrity would make Labour look bad. If pushed, I am sure Labour MPs would much prefer a pantomime baddie like Widdecombe in the Chair.

Update - Douglas Carswell and some of my favourite bloggers (Guido Fawkes, Graeme Archer, Cranmer and Jonathan Calder) called it right. As Tony Sharp observes the mood of the country does not extend to Westminster. I suppose we have to hope for the best from Bercow.

Congratulations Pete

I have known Peter Smallbone since I joined 1M at the age of 11. Even at school we were good friends and instinctive Tories. I might be wrong but I vaguely remember us discussing subscribing to British Gas shares at school. Our contact faded when we were at different universities but reignited in our 20s when we took several holidays together including trips to Cuba and Russia. By 2006 Pete was standing at local level and started his political blog (see links on the right). He captured Birmingham Quinton off Labour in May 2008. :-)
Well, on 13 June 2009 Pete got married at his parish church. Here's my favourite picture from the reception at the Chamberlains' former family home - Highbury Hall. Congratulations to Laura and Pete on a great wedding day and an excellent wedding party. Best wishes for the future.

Fantasy Political Evening Guests

This weekend I was lucky enough to meet Roger Ward, the author of the book "City State And Nation" - Birmingham's Political History 1830 - 1940. His book is one of my favourites because it offers unique insights into Birmingham's political development and in our brief conversation today he managed to recommend a couple of others and passed on a couple of pearls of wisdom. The briefest of meetings with a real authority on a subject is worth its weight in gold.

As a member of several political groups in Birmingham, the topic of political speakers comes up from time to time. Many of my colleagues seem overly keen on getting leading politicians of the day to come (up from London) to talk, but I find them to be less than candid and often in a hurry. Apart from Roger my short list of the people I would like to have present at one of our local political meetings looks like this.

Dermot Reeve - Successful Warwickshire cricketer, innovator and man manager.
Nick Booth - Community media guru - full of ideas, enthusiasm and delivery.
Clare Short - Always has something interesting to say (e.g. this weekend)
Heather Brooke - The successful open government campaigner.
Jon Moulton - As someone who speaks with clarity about the recession, he is a rarity.

Roger gave me a quiz question which I was unable to answer. Name the last Liberal elected to Parliament from Birmingham? Can anyone get that?

This Nightmare Has To End

On Friday morning I set out on a stag weekend with guys who had travelled in from all over the world. South Africans, Americans and a few Brits, a Kiwi, a Slovak and a Canadian - one chap flew in from Japan. All successful in their part of the private sector. Far from the praise that Labourites suggest that Brown garners from all four corners of the globe, they were unaminously gloomy about both his style and substance and were trying to understand when would be the latest date that the British public could get shot of him.

I knew Labour had had a bad election, but didn't keep in touch with home so my first contact was reading the Mail on Sunday on the flight back to Heathrow. Labour strife appeared to have descended into open warfare. Take Geraldine Smith's article - which deserves a fisk. What kind of mindset do you need to have got yourself into to call fellow female MPs witches? Whilst I think that the following quote has a kernel of truth, can't Ms Smith appreciate that it is so much more powerful and therefore damaging to her party cause when a female Labour MP says it.

The trouble with some of the so-called Blair Babes is that they have come into Parliament without any experience of the cut and thrust of the business world. Frankly, some of them are better equipped for meetings of a WI knitting circle than the rough and tumble of politics.

I am not sure which element of what is going on is worse for Labour's prospects. Is it the open division with each factional blow and counter-blow escalating the level of rancour? Or is it Gordon Brown's stubborn intransigence and startling immaturity? Or is it the 'Blairite' plotters who only appear to have damaged themselves and their party so far whilst cementing Labour's reputation for incompetence? I didn't expect ruthlessness, but they can't even manage to give one of the weakest PM's in history a political knifing.

I would like to see Labour obliterated at the ballot box, but even I don't think I could wish for this nasty, mean-spirited saga to play out in public for much longer. A friend of a friend who has contacts in the Treasury and meets a Minister frequently, reports back that the air of gloom when he last visited was palpable. The Minister who I won't name doesn't seem like the sharpest tool in the box, but does at least come across as affable in public.

Meanwhile, the Independent has the audacity to assemble four Lefties to debate titled 'Is Our Democracy Under Threat?' in Birmingham this Wednesday. Let me assure the panellists who I expect to be scratching around for new and exciting ways to keep the Tories out, that the public's appetite for an immediate general election will be made crystal clear.

52 Card Pickup

Apparently, Gordon Brown is planning a reshuffle in the wake of the Euros.
This picture was mailed to me of his plans from inside 10 Downing Street.

How To Woo A Lib Dem

Councillor Martin Mullaney is the latest Cabinet member on Birmingham City Council. After having his arm twisted to throw his hat in the ring, he circulated the following pitch to his fellow Lib Dems and then won the overwhelming backing of the group to overthrow Ray Halsall the incumbent Cabinet member for Leisure, Sport and Culture.

CLICK THE IMAGE TO ENLARGE

I expect no reward for this public service, but I hope this gives other ordinary mortals an insight in how to woo a Lib Dem.

Behind The Curve & Ahead Of The Curve

It is difficult to gauge the mood when events move so quickly. In spite of following the progression of many a political scandal, I was slow to appreciate the political impact of the Expensegate and as a result I have a somewhat painful bet hanging which depends on Labour's performance at the upcoming Euros.

On the other hand, a thread that I started a week ago on Michael Martin - where John Hemming MP indicated his support for attempts to remove the speaker and which attracted some half-hearted criticism from a local Labour blogger now appears ahead of the curve. Congratulations Douglas Carswell MP.

On a related note, do you think now would be a good time for the Daily Telegraph's whistleblowing source to reveal their identity? Update - Police will not prosecute. 2nd Update - John Wick deserves congratulation, but in the MPs' expenses maelstrom some people are losing perspective. For example, where is the scandal in this case?

Easter In Wales

At Easter, Wales was the only sunny place in the UK, but fortunately that's where we went. We started at Mellington Hall where my wife and I stayed for a night. Built like a Cluedo boardgame, I imagine that the murder mystery nights they host there are great fun. Its grounds were perfect for a relaxing evening stroll.
Here's a few pictures from the country roads and lakes of mid-Wales.

The perfect reflection at Lake Efyrnwy was a joy.
We ended up at the distinctive Powys Castle near Welshpool which remains inhabited.

Political In-Fighting

Astonishingly, Birmingham Labour returned more MPs to Parliament in 2005 (nine) than the number of councillors they returned in last year's locals (eight). Labour MPs sit in Birmingham Edgbaston, Selly Oak, Hall Green and Northfield but in the 36 local elections held in these four seats in the local elections held in May 2006, 2007 and 2008, Labour have won a solitary seat. Occasionally people express surprise at how badly Labour are doing on Birmingham City Council. In a recent post (three down) I related Labour's selection difficulties for the Lozells & East Handsworth by-election. This election campaign has now exploded into violence. Not between parties, but within the Labour Party! It's rumoured that the victim is in fact the Labour Party agent, a chap who is unfortunate enough to share a name with a commenter who posted this drivel on the Birmingham Post blog.

...Every one has right to air their views how ever I begg to differ.
Roshan must be held responsiable for an attack on the sikh community. The birmingham post should remove such people from their post who try to create hate within our multicultral, multifaith community. I also take the view that this is not roshan speaking but the Birmingham post for not vetting and allowing this articail to be printed. Again welldone to the organisors. This is what happens when you harvest fruit out of season , you get a Coconut that has a bitter taste.

Now do you understand why Labour is vanishing in Birmingham?

Annoyed With The Telegraph

Guess why?