Learning From Canadian Tories

James Forsyth at the Spectator is a commentator with whom I frequently disagree (usually because his arguments are fallacious or based on false premises). He is asking whether a party has ever come back from "this far behind" to win an election. For the purpose of his question, I'll set to one side the fact that the swings at Ealing and Sedgefield would make the Tories the largest party nationally if repeated at a GE and that the Tories won the local elections by a landslide and answer the question as is.

I blogged previously on the parallels between Gordon Brown and ex-Canadian PM Paul Martin. Paul Martin called an election in 2006 where his liberal party were showing a 5% to 10% lead in the polls. The Conservatives won easily in the end as shown by the graphic. More narrative here, but the key feature of the Conservative campaign was their "policy a day" initiative that won round the public and the media. The Conservative leader Stephen Harper isn't and wasn't seen as charismatic, but he was certainly seen as authentic and substantial.

Authenticity is the word Tim Montgomerie at Conservative Home has been using to press home what the Tories need to convey to attract new votes. I couldn't agree more. But don't expect anything I say to carry any weight. In fact the opposite will probably happen, as witnessed by my reshuffle advice to the party to retain Willetts and Maude where they are and demote Osborne.

Rapid Rebuttal

I have no special knowledge about how the voters of Ealing vote and we will know soon enough, but I will say that the Tory rebuttal of the "Tony Lit donation" smear was far too weak and was a blemish in an otherwise excellent campaign. As Mark Twain said;

“A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is still putting on its shoes”

and indeed the lie that Tony Lit was a Labour donor was not rebutted strongly enough. Lit's response that he attends many such events in a business capacity was simply not forceful enough. The media scrum following the revelation was a chance for Tony to really put the knife into Labour. In his shoes I would have been delighted to make the following points to the press on the Sunday ;

1. I was at the function for business purposes. I agree that it is not ideal that Labour organise events like this as a front for fund-raising activities, but from a business perspective it made sense for Sunrise Radio to be in attendance.
2. The payment for the dinner was made by Sunrise Radio Ltd not me. Therefore, my lawyers will be in touch should any journalists continue to libel me by calling me a Labour donor.
3. I understand that Sunrise Radio Ltd are contacting the Labour Party as a matter of urgency in respect of this apparent breach of privacy, copyright and Data Protection.
4. Is it any surprise that the British people have so little trust in Labour when Labour can't even be trusted to keep private business arrangements confidential?

Monday's headlines start looking a bit different if he rebuts in that style. Might have been worth a few votes, but I guess that Tony Lit is new to politics. One thing is crystal though. Tony is a Tory and he has put in a sterling effort for the party. Best of luck.

London Mayoralty Issues

I am encouraged that many of the Conservative candidates for the London mayoralty primary have placed emphasis on law and order. Given that Lee Rotherham's thoughts on these matters are the most developed I think it's a real pity that he hasn't made the final six.

Policy plagiarism between fellow Conservatives is to be encouraged and so I hope that the other candidates read Lee's well researched article on his website and pick up some of his ideas. I'm sure he'd be happy to share his experiences and assist them with developing policy in this area.

A Bias For Inaction

As mentioned last week, I have some posts on small government saved up. To set the scene, several of my favourite political insights are summed up by the following Reagan quote.

The nine most terrifying words in the English language are, 'I'm from the
government and I'm here to help.'

If uttered by a Labour politician it would certainly send a shudder - Caroline (Supernanny) Flint (honourable mentions to Brown and Blair) being the modern British politician who has, in my opinion, come furthest on the trajectory of taking state "help" to its natural totalitarian conclusion.

It's a most unfortunate paradox that although at the micro level, it is preferable to have political representatives who are both willing and able to serve/act for their electorate, at the macro level preferable to have a political leadership with a natural and confident bias for inaction.

Labour's legislative frenzy (98% of which is done via statutory instrument - i.e. without a full Parliamentary debate) provides evidence that they are an excellent example of a statist government. The Tory's approach to the public services and ideas such as elected police sheriffs and abolition of regional assemblies are initiatives that could reverse the tide. These are appealing ideas, but we need to communicate better with the electorate on how different our approach to governing will be.

What Now For The Conservative Party?

It was reported today that the Conservatives fell behind Labour in one deeply unrepresentative poll. As other Conservative should be, I am prepared for further ups and downs before the next General Election. The last few months have been shadow-boxing. Strategically, what would you do over the next few months if you were able to influence the Conservative Party? Here's my top 5.

• Focus on Brown's illegitimacy at every turn. The electorate shouldn't be able to forget how he came to power. Eventually, he will lose his cool.
• Campaign for an EU referendum*. At the least election all three parties made a manifesto commitment to grant the British people a referendum on constitutional changes in the EU. Played well, this story can run and run.
• Go hard on English votes for English issues. Making a deal with Alex Salmond and the SNP for them to back this campaign would be an astute move.
• Give a greater say to the party grassroots. Giving members a say in MEP selections would be a start.
• Spend time attacking Labour rather than Conservative "past" . Fight as a team and on all policy fronts. In the last few days I've seen Andrew Lansley, David Davis and William Hague all over the media. Where were they over the last six months?

* An expert wonk should be working on preparing some killer wording for a relevant 10 Downing Street petition.

Cameron At His Best

When Cameron took the party reins he devolved responsibility for preparing party proposals on a number of important issues to experienced colleagues many of whom had been under-valued for years. One such initiative is the Democracy Taskforce report which Ken Clarke has overseen and recently launched.

I particularly like the plans to elect Select Committee chairmen and the ability for 10 Downing Street petitions to force issues onto the Parliamentary agenda. A chat between Ken & Dave is up on WebCameron and if you want extended highlights you can go to youtube. If Ken's proposals go through, I might even be interested in becoming an MP - one day.

Conservative Future Working Life Conference

On July 21/22 I'm going to be running a few group sessions at the Conservative Future Working Life Conference in my hometown of Birmingham on the theme of blogging. I plan to start with a brief overview of some recent academic research into the profiles, motivations and attitudes of leading right-wing bloggers in the UK. We'll go on to discuss practical blogging pitfalls and I expect participants to leave with the tools and confidence to blog.

Teaching is always a good way of learning and it's been quite good fun doing research on the internet for this. Without going over the top, I have been trying to distill the key practical skills for a political blogger. Imho, if you can improve your proficiency in any of these areas, it will probably make a noticeable difference to your blogging capabilities.

Writing - Croydonian has a style which is concise and yet engaging. I like Kerron's conversational style of writing, too. How easy you are to read is a crucial factor in how successful you blog can be.

Arguing - A course in critical thinking wouldn't go amiss - if only to make yourself aware of your opponent's likely spoiling tactics. Dizzy's good at arguing. Although, if you're too good, you won't get any comments (joke).

Subject Matter Expertise - If, like Iain Dale, you live and breathe your blog topic, that helps. Managing contacts and news sources ain't a bad idea (check out what Matt Wardman does)

Public Relations - How do you market yourself to achieve the audience that you're looking for? I think I'll tap Ellee for some smart ideas.

Psychology - You learn a lot about people when you blog. I doubt I'll ever be as skilled as a pro, but I'm not averse to picking up insights from Dr Michelle Tempest's blog.

The weekend itself looks excellent and there are many superb speakers planned. If you're not signed up yet, get your skates on. Link. Does anyone have any relevant thoughts or resources that they'd like to share?

Love-Bombing Lib Dems

A Poor Moderniser

As an ordinary Conservative party member, I've been trying to put my finger on what modernisation is so that I can fit in with this trendy new strategy. I've failed to accept certain ideas which I am told are modernising such as courting non-Conservatives to stand on our party ticket, anti-democratic MEP selection procedures and not being a low tax party, so I have redoubled my efforts to find ways to modernise. Finally, from the unexpected source of Melissa Kite I have found something I can do to bolster my modernising credentials.

Love-Bombing Lib Dems

Top Tory blogger Mr Newmania is going to hate me for this, but there are Lib Dems I like and I am generally happy to try to work with them when possible. Even flatter them - although I wouldn't use the term love-bomb. Admittedly, I struggle to find common ground with Lib Dems who are in favour of big government - but I tend to manage to ignore them. I'd like to draw attention to some of my favourite Lib Dem bloggers.

I appreciate Cllr Stephen Tall for his open-minded approach to politics. For example there are not many Liberal bloggers who would take the opportunity to discuss school vouchers whilst the Tory grammar school debate continues to rumble.

Andy Mayer is another independent thinker and presents his arguments well. I think his party should embrace some of his ideas such as the ones in this election post.

In the very authoritarian climate of our time, I find it easy to make common cause with freedom-loving Liberals like Jock Coats who has recently returned to blogging -although given his fervent liberalism, I wouldn't mind clarification of what he meant by "sexual deviants" on this post.

And if you've got the time, check this fascinating forum thread, where I've been happy to support Cllr Martin Mullaney and John Hemming MP for their work in exposing electoral fraud in Birmingham and Labour's inaction related to such matters.

Conservative Home Best Newcomer

Celebrating Winning Best Newcomer

To have been presented with a Conservative Home award by the delightful Nadine Dorries would have been a wonderful moment, but I could hardly justify a trip to London on the off-chance. Having blogged since last summer I hardly feel like a newcomer, but the criterion for the newcomer tag was to have started in 2006.

Other Winners

Iain Dale was a deserving overall winner and has put a mini-report on his blog. As well as being a fan of Archbishop Cranmer's blog, I am particularly pleased at the success of Birmingham University Conservative Forum blog. What many people may not realise is that as well as being very readable, the BUCF blog has also been a springboard for unprecedented Conservative successes in the guild elections at their university. Daniel, Joseph and the team deserve the plaudits.

The Next Generation Of Conservative Bloggers

It's been smashing to see the likes of Daniel and Matthew Sinclair (formerly of LSE) develop their political identities online and I would definitely like to see more young Conservatives blogging. Not only should the British Conservative movement be appealing to this generation, but it should be engaged with and influenced by them, too. I think it's notable that of the 10 Conservative blogs from the West Midlands that I link to, seven are younger than me and none of them are much older than me (I'm 32). Let's keep the momentum going.

We Are All Tories Now?

Met a new group of people last night. When I mentioned that I have a political website, everyone who expressed a preference said that they were also conservatives. One chap, who is a teacher in his late 20s, wants me to send him the membership form so that he can join up with Conservatives Abroad. Excellent.

Exceptionally Gloomy European Prognosis

Background

Reforming the EU so that we increase its accountability and legitimacy and reduce its corruption and intrusiveness is a major way that we can improve the lives of the British public. The EU as it stands is bad government and that is very damaging.

Yesterday, on St George's day, the Conservative Party Board voted in some disgraceful proposals for 2009 MEP selection that simultanaeously protected incumbency, reduced the field for new talent and struck at party democracy.

As a party we are committed to moving from being a small fish in a federalist grouping (EPP) to becoming a big fish in an EU reform grouping (MER)*. In this new world we need leaders, visionaries, networkers and reformers. This involves serious change. The proposals look like a dog's breakfast. Let's take a look.

* - If you think that this website looks threadbare, you'd be right. A telling example of our party's failure to plan for 2009.

Protecting Incumbency

Fact - Members will have no direct say in the reselection of incumbents. Incumbents will be ranked higher than any other candidates.

Response - I can't think of a time when measures to protect incumbency have been so inappropriate. The only reason I did not oppose the decision to form a new grouping in 2009 (rather than immediately) was that it was clear to me by their actions that the current Conservative delegation of MEPs was, as a group, not fit for purpose. Dead wood needs to go. Incumbents who are unable or unwilling to make a full contribution to a new EU Reform agenda are an obstacle to our future success in Europe.

Reducing The Field For New Talent

Fact - Should a vacancies arise in any region, women will take the highest non-incumbent slot.

Response - First of all this measure may even be illegal under EU law (see Article 13 of the Amsterdam Treaty). Putting that to one side, new blood is probably required for the new team that is being formed. The protection of incumbents (see above) severely limits our opportunities for this and is likely to discourage good candidates from presenting themselves. The fact that only women can take the top non-incumbent spot in each region chokes off further talent. A constituency chairman informs me that less than 10% of applications in 2004 in his region were from women. As someone who has worked in international business, this does not surprise me. Deliberately reducing the field of talent by about 90% is negligent and highly disrespectful to the important role that MEPs will have. For consistency, next time Cameron reshuffles, I want to see 10 women on the Tory front bench (I don't mean this by the way).

A Blow To Party Democracy

Fact - Members will have no direct say in the reselection of incumbents. Where high-placed slots exist, it will generally be the case that the candidates will have been pre-selected (all women).

Response - This is not democracy. It is nowhere near it. I will fight for democratic representation within my party.

A Personal View

Based in Prague as I am, I hear the voices of politicians and politicos in Czech Republic, Slovakia and the wider region. They describe to me how things look from their side of the fence, taking a leap in the dark to join the Conservatives in an untested grouping. They describe their deep misgivings about our Europhile Conservatives in Brussels and report to me how within their own ranks they are fighting people who are keen to keep the trappings of their EPP status. I've been telling them that things would change due to our party democracy and that we have the people to provide the real leadership that the new reform grouping requires. These proposals change all that and make me look like an idiot. In my personal life, I don't invite friends to a party that is going to be crap and I'm not going to do it in my political life.

Prognosis

A new grouping needs parties from five member states. To attract new partners the Conservative leadership needs

- to organise its partners and MEPs to work as a team
- a politically coherent vision
- the political courage to approach potential partners with unfashionable views (e.g. Poles in favour of the death penalty)

That's phase one. In order to be an effective voice and deliver on the reform agenda, we will need a visionary and energetic grouping. The Movement For European Reform was an ambitious project. These proposals condemn it to failure. They need to be strongly opposed by democrats and reformers within the Conservative Party.

Monday 23rd April - Decision Time

I'd like to endorse Greg Hands' call to lobby grassroots representatives on the Party Board about how MEP selections are carried out. According to Conservative Home the recommendations on the table can be summarised as follows;

(1) Ordinary members lose their decisive say on MEP candidate selection;
(2) Incumbent MEPs - many of them unsupportive of David Cameron's pledge to leave the EPP - will be kept at the top of regional lists if a committee of party appointees and Association Chairmen agree;
(3) All retiring MEPs can only be replaced by women;
(4) Lower slots on the regional lists will be decided by all members.

The first three recommendations are all horribly anti-democratic and that they are being tabled should in itself be an embarassment to the party.



The three elected members of the party board towards whom party members who believe in democracy should be making representations are Charles Barwell (on the left of the picture), Emma Pidding (centre right) and Jeremy Middleton (on the right). Mail addresses are jeremy@middletonenterprises.com, emma.pidding@richardsoneyres.co.uk and mail@charlesbarwell.com.

I have to say that I don't know much of Emma or Jeremy. Charles Barwell is a fellow Brummie and Villa fan and I regularly check out his blog. On his home page he lists maintaining a united party as his number one area of focus. Like the other members of the Board he has an opportunity on Monday to prevent a resolution that would cause serious disunity in the party.

If the party leadership is looking for a clause four moment, this could be their chance. However, supporting these anti-democratic measures is indefensible and would be a terrible horse for them to back.

Social Conservatism

Discussing social conservatism is a minefield, but discuss it we must. Finally (and I mean finally) a consensus is forming that social attitudes are a root cause of the malaise in public services and damaging trends in government dependency, but as for responding to this with practical policies the Tories remain some way off. Matt Sinclair does a truly superb piece on this theme. In my opinion it is stunning both in its imagery and in its perceptiveness. I agree that an incredible challenge lies ahead for Cameron's Conservatives, (which I hope will be informed by IDS and other specialists) but one that can not be shirked.

Matt manages to combine intellectual rigour and an engaging style in his writing. I think this is why he topped the young conservative poll that I ran in January. Elsewhere, I fully support the call he made in February at Conservative Home for Young Conservatives to explore and develop their political ideology. I understand that Matt has now left the LSE for pastures new, but I expect him to continue to make a significant contribution to right-thinking ideas in the future. A star in the making, I'd suggest.

Tories Select Energetic Local Woman To Fight Birmingham Northfield

Readers may recall my interest in a safe (?) Labour-held seat - "Birmingham Northfield". On that thread, the 2005 PPC (Vicky Ford) said that she agreed that the seat could fall to a good local candidate with time to their ground work. In 2005, as with most Birmingham candidates, Vicky was selected far too late. Therefore, it is encouraging that we have selected early this time.

The winner of the selection process was Keely Rogers aged 25 and although I haven't met her, we have many mutual friends. She is local and I believe she stood in the 2004 council elections in one of the Northfield wards. I remember being amused at this article where the hack describes 22 year old Keely making a terrifyingly composed speech whilst being characteristically drerogatory about her accent. Note to London journos. That's what a Brummie accent sounds like and it's a plus if you want to relate to people and win an election in this neck of the woods. Good to hear that she describes herself as a right-winger - that will help too.

Keely is a good, local candidate and has plenty of time to make a mark. I wish her well and hope to assist with her campaign.

Cameron On the NHS

I am drugged up on Benylin - it says on the pack "May cause drowsiness. Do not drive or operate machinery" - so I'm taking it that excessive blogging is also a bad idea. However, what I will say about the NHS is that the government has spent so much of our money and completely failed to deliver in every dimension.

The View From Abroad

Conservatives Abroad are developing a series called the view from... The latest are from expats in Spain and Russia. Check them out here. Also, if you're interested Conservatives Abroad are asking people what to campaign on. I'm hosting a friend's stag do this weekend, so if anyone wants to do a few guest blog posts this weekend, I would be delighted. Also, my blog is now worth about £40,000, but I would be willing to listen to lower offers. Mail me at praguetory@googlemail.com.

Happy Anniversary Stephen Harper

On February 6 2006, Stephen Harper became the first Canadian Conservative premier for 12 years having united the opposition and ran a strong campaign which included a "policy a day" initiative (British Conservatives take note). He has now been in power for 400 days.

Stephen Harper is a trained economist and before becoming a national leader many thought that he was more suited to being a backroom boy. His successful spell in charge has rebuffed this notion and he has a keen group of young conservative supporters many of whom share Stephen's passion for ice hockey.

Toronto Tories are a group of students. Purpletory is from Ontario, aged eighteen and is a keen rock fan. BC Tory is another youngster and has been going since 2005. Darkbluetory and Saskatory both started blogging in the month when Stephen Harper gained power.

Don't know what the deal is with all these colours, but my favourite name of the lot is the prolific Red Tory. There's a very interesting thread going at his place about Harper's lack of appeal to women.

Labour's Attitude To Democracy

Open primaries are a great way of enhancing the democracy and an eye-witness blog entry describes how she believes that the evening helped enthuse the public. Therefore, it is with concern that a well-connected Labour blogger who is running the Hillary Benn for Deputy on-line campaign would openly boast about fraudulent activity at the selection. The fact that Labour supporters would call Alex Hilton of Recess Monkey to crow about their behaviour tells you all you need to know about his attitude towards democracy. Labour's counter-attacks against popular Downing Street petitions, their concerted attacks on bloggers and this latest co-ordinated interference in a selection process are just some of the many symptoms of the deeply sick patient which is the Labour Party.

The Tory Brand

Beginning Of Cameron

Way back at the start of the Cameron leadership, Tamzin Lightwater suggested in her Spectator column that Thatcherite and Tory were words not to be mentioned at Conservative Central Office. About a year ago, well before my blog had begun, I was having a debate with a fellow Conservative about the word Tory. I said we had to own and alter the Tory brand, he argued to bin it. My main argument was and is that whether we use it or not our opponents will continue to use the word "Tory" disparagingly. Rather than run away from the label, obviously, I prefer to embrace the term.

Tories Are Back

On these themes, there have been some very interesting developments. The chaos of the Blair backdrop has helped, but Margaret Thatcher is unquestionably becoming a legend in her own lifetime. She was rated as the best PM of the 20th Century in a poll of historians last August and now on the Daily Politics poll she is sweeping all other PMs aside with a full 65% of the vote. Tamzin Lightwater's column suggests the right-wing elite have cottoned on and Dave doesn't seem to mind being called a true Tory by friendly newspapers.

We're Not So Old Either

In my book Tory and Conservative are interchangeable terms, but Tory is snappier. As such, I would like to introduce you to the newest blogging Tory. His handle is Brummietory. He might not be old enough to vote yet, but at the age of 17 he has just been appointed the Chairman of Kingstanding Neighbourhood Forum!!! Brummietory lives in Sion Simon's Birmingham Erdington seat (I know - it's too good to be true isn't it?), but he isn't the only young Conservative making a difference in that area. Birmingham's youngest councillor is 23 year old Robert Alden who won the Erdington ward from Labour last May. When you read through local anti-crime initiatives, you'd be forgiven for thinking that Robert's the only local politician trying to make a difference. More reasons why I'm proud to be called a Tory.

Fisking Partisan Jibes

Sloppy, inaccurate posting at Labour Home concerning the news that the Tory Conference will be held at Birmingham in 2008. The comments are just as misinformed/moronic. I hope you agree that the following fisking is fully deserved.

According to reports on Conservative Home, Birmingham's (Tory-administered) Council has bunged the Tory Pary £2million to host their 2007 Conference in the City.

I think you'll find that it is a discount.

Apparently, the justification for giving a political party £2million of taxpayers money is that the amount of business it will generate will greatly exceed this "investment" - the figure £25 million is mentioned. Well, I can't see how it will raise a single penny in income for the Council - so this is a ludicrous assertion.

No. Yours is the ludicrous and badly informed assertion. NEC Ltd which runs the city's conference venues is 50% owned by the council. Therefore, a significant proportion of the income from the conference will benefit the city's coffers directly.

If local businesses who may well benefit from the dosh pouring out of Tory delegates' and other hangers-ons' pockets, want to bribe the Conservatives, I have no problem with that: how private businesses spend their money isn't my concern. But using taxpayers' money - including a large majority of taxpayers who do not support, let alone contribute to the Tory Party, is outrageous. I'm not sure it's even legal.

Marketing Birmingham (in which the council has a minority stake) has been trying to get all three major parties to hold their conferences in Birmingham. This has been supported by all three major parties leaders - Bore for Labour, Whitby for the Tories and Tilsley of the Lib Dems - although it was reported in September that the Labour group in the city opposed trying to get the Labour Party to come! (don't ask me why).

And for the record, it would have been as outrageous if Manchester Council had bunged Labour £2million to net the 2006 Conference.

Do you know what subvention is? Marketing Manchester has a subvention policy for conferences hosted in the city. If cash-strapped Labour didn't manage to get a discount for their event, that's just another example of Labour incompetence.

Oh, and yet again, we see Lib Dems complicit in this maladministration, given that they're the larger party in Birmingham's coalition.

Wrong again!!! There are 41 Conservative councillors and 32 Lib Dems in the ruling coalition in Birmingham. There will be more after the May elections though (haha).

Typical.

This economically illiterate and woefully inaccurate post is a typical partisan jibe.

In other news a former Labour PPC reckons that his comrades should turn up waving placards and throwing eggs. What a bunch of idiots.