On May 2nd 2007, Blair will celebrate serving 10 years as prime minister. On May 3rd 2007, his party is going to take one hell of a kicking in the Scottish, Welsh and local elections. No matter what Blair does between now and May, short of being arrested, he's not going to stand down. What the Labour Party's membership thinks is an irrelevance. It serves neither Brown or Blair's personal interests for Blair to go before then. Blair gets his ten years and Brown doesn't carry the can for electoral meltdown. Even if Levy gets arrested, I think that Blair can and will brass it out. He will be forced to announce his exact departure date very soon after the May elections.
8 comments:
Cameron has got his tactics wrong. What is the point of going after Blair? The man is dead in the water. Cameron's tactic in singling out Blair is manna from heaven for Brown who would like nothing better than for all of NuLab's incomptetence and sleeze to be laid at Blair's door. He can then start out in June with a clean sheet in the eyes of many voters. Getting rid of Blair sooner rather than later would not only be a meaningless, cheap, victory it could be very helpful to Brown. Cameron must start attacking NuLab as an entity as opposed to pointless attacks on one (dead) man
Interesting points. I note that Ming has also entered the fray and called for Blair to go. I should also point out that Cameron (and a majority of the electorate) believe that if Blair goes we should have a General Election. Maybe, DC is getting impatient about being able to put GB on the spot over that one.
I've had my money on May 4th for quite a while.
There is more chance of Peter Mandleson marrying Princess Di than there is of Brown calling an election.Start attacking the weaknesses in Brown, Kelly, Reid et al now. And start coming up with some wide appeal policies. The disgruntled NuLab voters need to know that the Tories are the alternative.Sit in any bar, stand in any airport queue or listen to any work place conversation and the constant themes are:
1.Uncontrolled immigration/borders
2.Stealth taxes/Pensions
3.Crime, particularly the failure to deport foreign criminals.
I agree that Brown won't call an election, but his failure to do so will damage him. Obviously, there are two schools of thought. Keeping the policy powder dry appears to be the Tories strategy. I'm of the view that the things you mention are things that Tories can talk about today. I do and I think Cameron is in recent interviews.
Indeed.
Here in Wales we've been discussing this for some time.
Labour are in for a trouncing.
I reckon that Blair will announce his departure on May 2nd, his 10th anniversary. It will increase the prominance of the milestone and might help Labour councillors on the 3rd if voters know Blair has resigned, therefore reducing the wish to punish him electorally.
I have a clock that says 5th may on my site. You should get one yourself.
Post a Comment