Astonishing Prediction

In 2005, Birmingham returned nine Labour MPs. Since then a third have resigned from office or the Parliamentary party and one of that number is also a national laughing stock after his aborted attempt at satire on YouTube.

If I was a Labour member, I’d be horrified. Personally, I’ve been speculating about something in the water. I’ve decided to profile the fortunes and prospects of these nine sitting MPs. Here’s the roll of honour with their current seats and my favourite link pertaining to them.

Edgbaston – Gisela Stuart
Erdington – Sion Simon
Hall Green – Steve McCabe
Hodge Hill – Liam Byrne
Ladywood – Clare Short
Northfield – Richard Burden
Perry Barr – Khalid Mahmood
Selly Oak – Lynne Jones
Sparkbrook & Small Heath – Roger Godsiff

My astonishing prediction is that less than half of the above will be Labour MPs after the next general election. I’m going to do a more detailed rundown on three at a time, so before I start, please contribute any relevant comments.

Blogging Scoops

A scoop is like a joke. It’s all in the timing and delivery. Just like a good joke can fall flat on its face, if you haven’t got the crowd’s attention or you get the timing wrong, a good scoop can fail for the same reasons.

A Few Thoughts On Timing - Stick or Twist?

Say I had a scoop that embarrassed political opponents of mine, the ideal would be to deliver the said story on a slow news day, on the back of related stories, shortly before an election. However, it’s not always such a good idea to wait. Once a story has been sniffed out, for every day that you hold back the chance that somebody else will find the story and make the splash increases and it’s unlikely that they will have the same objectives as you. Also, if it is apparent that you have been "sitting" on a story, people will question your motives – possibly undermining the plausibility of the story itself. As with jokes, there is no right answer on this – it’s instinct.

A Few Thoughts On Delivery – Spearhead or United Front

One of the main decisions you have to make with a scoop is how you plan to deliver it to the world. Again, many factors come into play. I think that if you are very confident in your scoop, have some profile and are prepared to be the lightning rod for counter-play, then taking the role of spearhead for the scoop is best. You have the advantage of retaining control and whilst you will inevitably take flak from your opponents, your "side" will undoubtedly coalesce around you – a recipe for a big story. The united front is advisable for those with lower profile. If you take this approach you may try to take some responsibility for co-ordinating the delivery of the scoop, but you certainly lose control and key elements or factors of the scoop may get lost in the process. The united front has the feature of more "owners" of the story which can be a strength, but increases the chance of misunderstandings and internal dissent.

Do you have any comments re the above? Are there other factors to consider? Any related stories to share?

West Midlands Conservatives

After becoming aware of them through Iain Dale, I have added the West Midlands Conservatives website to my blogroll. They have a fairly generous definition of the West Midlands and it is a useful site for learning about news in the wider region. MEP Phil Bradbourn is advertising for a new research assistant which looks like an interesting role for the right person.

I haven’t managed to get through all their blogroll, but I decided to visit Jesse Norman’s website. Jesse is the PPC for the Hereford and South Herefordshire seat and is local to the area. Of course he is well known as a journalist and his recent articles are displayed on his website. In particular I liked this piece on tribal politics.

Why Do It?

Just been staring through my window at a beautiful blue sky as thin cirrus clouds track slowly by and wandered to myself why do I do it. Political blogging. I have a very quiet and easy life in Prague - most Brits here don't even keep in touch with events back home in any meaningful way. The conversations last night at chess were about teaching English and the Belgrano. So why do I deliberately stir up my own genuine feelings of disappointment and dismay in my motherland? I don't have to. Everyone needs to compartmentalise and it woud be completely rational for me to chuck the UK into a corner (in a figurative sense). Of course I won't, but I think I will for today. Mind you this amused me.

Update - it's clouded over.

Labour - Boldly Going Where No Other Government Has Gone Before

A friend from the Danny Dewsbury campaign who studies history with interest has prepared a post comparing two governments. Cleverly done. Here's the link.

Star Wars v Star Trek

Guido has been using Star Wars comparisons about our wonderful government. I prefer to use Star Trek as an analogy. Labour are boldly going where no government has gone before. I could argue the British citizen subject had more rights under Magna Carta than they do today. Here's two examples of what's happening and why the natives are getting restless.

Road Pricing/Tracking

Yesterday, the 10 Downing Street website was down for a time under the weight of people logging in to sign this petition to oppose the government's intrusive road pricing proposals. The government's proposal is to introduce road pricing. It will mean you have to buy a vehicle tracking device and pay a monthly bill to use it. The upfront cost will be about £200 and in a recent study by the BBC, the lowest monthly bill was £28 for a rural florist and £194 for a delivery driver. On top of this massive increase in tax, you will be tracked. Somebody will know where you are at all times. If you accidentally creep over a speed limit you can expect a top-up with your monthly bill.

Is An Englishman's Castle His Home Any More?

Here's another reason to get angry. Tony Sharp is rightly incensed by the government proposals to have a team of door-knockers visiting your house every year to update your council tax valuations. I smell civil disobedience.

18 Doughty Street Returns

18 Doughty Street the internet politics show returns. People have accused 18DS of being biased, but the planned debate tonight goes some way to refuting this suggestion. At 9pm GMT there will be a debate on bullying on blogs. Unafraid to air a selection of views, Alex Hilton of Recess Monkey will presumably be arguing for bullying.

Alex is on record as saying that the disabled should be targets for satirists. No holds barred for Alex. I look forward to him putting forward a consistent position tonight.

If the participants struggle to define their position in the debate, they might want to consider the acceptability of this post where Alex's looks were placed under the microscope with unfortunate results.

There's Talk Of Witch-Hunts

The leaders of the major parties (by that I mean Blair and Cameron) are supporting Ruth Kelly as am I for her personal decision to pay for her son to be educated privately. More here.

However, Labour MP Barry Sheerman, chairman of the Commons education select committee, said: "Before we start a witch-hunt about a particular Cabinet minister, let us find out what the circumstances are and let's then duly consider that" .

So they've banned fox-hunting, but witch-hunting - that's OK. And who's we? And what does "finding out the circumstances" involve? Do "they" want to see Master Kelly's school reports/medical records before deciding that the decision is OK? Is it just me or do you get the feeling that being an open Christian in the Labour Party is frowned upon? Don't let the b*****s grind you down, Ruth.

Update

Personally, I thought the quote I found was the most newsworthy, but the BBC has kindly removed the element of Shearman's quote emboldened above. The rest of the article looks the same. Anyone would think NuLabour have got the Beeb in their pocket.

Blogwatch and Mutley The Dog

BLOGWATCH

My new sidelinks feature is blogwatch. It keeps a focus on the must see blogs. PHITCH has started blogging and is experimenting with graphics. Over at Suz's blog, she's having some fun at the expense of the Lib Dem leadership. Martin Kelly has had a sad death in the family (I extend my sympathies) and issues a warning about the new video release "Snakes On A Plane".

BRIDPORT -> PRAGUE

A man swollen with civic pride, Mutley the dog has intimated that he wants to allow Prague to twin with Bridport Wales. I noted my surprise that he was considering undertaking this venture from a distance, so he is coming to Prague some time next week or in March.

LITERARY ONE-UPMANSHIP

Mutley mentioned the Bridport Literary Festival and I admit it made me feel a bit competitive. In Prague we have Shakespeare & Son and Big Ben Books and occasional open mike slots where Americans anyone can read their own poetry, prose or conspiracy theories. There is no truth in the rumour that Piper Publishing s.r.o has opened for business. I'm not bothering with the news websites today, so feel free to let me know what's happening?

2007 Review!

James Higham tagged me on a meme about how I feel now and what my targets are for the end of January and end of March. Cheers James - I don't mind at all - although I've got to stop doing these meme things. I'll start by reviewing my first week of 2007.

IT'S BEEN MY BEST WEEK IN BLOGGING TO DATE

I've had more than 600 page views a day and close to 300 readers a day so far in 2007. Comments have run at one per hour, I haven't deleted or moderated a single one (I think) and highlights have included a visit from Boris Johnson's blog and the first comments from people in my family (but then again I did announce that I just got engaged). I have prepared 24 posts and have been tagged by Iain Dale and was included in a Guido post. Further, I learnt to my surprise that I am now linked at WebCameron along with just 8 other big C Conservative bloggers.

The week has been shaped by events starting with a successful New Years Party. My posting of the Saddam video briefly brought an avalanche of traffic on New Year's day. On Tuesday, my post on John McDonnell succeeded on many levels, but I'm not saying why. On Wednesday, a good blogging friend was named as the second most popular Tory blogger. Newmania wasn't shy in breaking this news and attracted traffic for this site from many quarters including Boris Johnson. On Thursday, I was tagged by Iain Dale and on Friday Piper returned, but I was more interested in Recess Monkey and Susanne Lamido. The weekend has been more quiet, but I've been doing some fruitful research and networking behind the scenes. All in all a superb week.

LOOKING FORWARD

Which takes me to looking forward. By the end of January, I want to set a date for the wedding. I resolved to socialise more in 2007 so blog-wise during the rest of January, I want to reduce posting significantly. However, I seem to be stumbling across/receiving stories from all over the shop so I will need to pass some on to people who'd like to run with them. So, if all goes to plan the rest of January is going to be a month of quiet back-scratching and planning. Don't worry, I'll publish the really good stuff so keep visiting, it's going to be worth it.

Re the final part of the meme, targets for the end of March, well that's quite fluid at this stage, but I do intend to have the rest of the year fairly well mapped out by then.

Research Using A Blog

Important stories and rumours seem to be sloshing around just below the surface. Rather than spend time on painstaking research, I've decided to see if I can get the research come to me.

Here's the bit to attract google hits

Romano Prodi (Italian PM, former EU bigwig)
Italian connection
Vasilli Mitrokhin (1922 - 2004)
KGB agent
Alexander Litvinenko (1962 - 2006)(poisoned by $10m of Polonium-210)
Col Gen Anatoly Trofimov (1940 - 2005)(assassinated in Moscow)
Mario Scaramella (consultant on Mitrokhin and in an Italian jail)
Gerald Batten MEP (recently resigned from UKIP NEC)
La Repubblica (Italian paper "supportive" of Prodi)
Mitrokhin

Please advise further reading etc etc in the comments box.