Blogging Break

The Lenten season approaches and I've decided to take a blogging break as part of that. I'd like to point you to a couple of Birmingham-based conservative websites. Young Tory activist Matthew Tidy has just started blogging. And David Kelly is a mysterious character who seems to be the first on all the local political gossip. I only plan to update the blog if and when my suggestion for a party peerage is published by Conservative Home.

Prescient?

I saw the following on a blogpost last November, so I repackaged it and sent it to some mates titled "The wisdom of Alistair Darling". Unfortunately, we're actually ahead of schedule...

Jan 2008 The UK economy is one of the strongest in the world

Feb 2008 Growth in the UK next year will be 2.5%

April 2008 The UK will continue to grow throughout next year

May 2008 The UK will escape recession

Nov 2008 The downturn will end in the second half of next year when growth will resume

Jan 2009 The UK recession will not be as bad as in the nineties

March 2009 The UK recession will not be as bad as in the seventies

April 2009 The UK economy is stronger than Irelands

May 2009 The UK economy is stronger than Icelands.....just

June 2009 The depression in the UK will not be as bad as in the thirties

Sept 2009 It will not be as bad as the Irish potato famine of the nineteenth century.

Nov 2009 It won't get as bad as during the Black Death which ravaged throughout the middle ages leaving millions dead

Dec 2009 Christmas is cancelled this year

Jan 2010 Hello...is anyone still listening?

Update - On a related theme, I have to admire the way Fraser Nelson is using his blog.

I Live In My Sister's Box Room

But last May in my capacity as a local resident and voter, I nominated the local Labour candidate at my 'second home' in Redditch.

Britain's Unsustainable Credit Expansion

Some people seem to think that bank nationalisation/massive public borrowing/lowering interest rates are the best way to get us out of this mess. I do not concur.

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

Ludwig von Mises.

That's why I'm looking for another currency. I like the Polish government but worry that these smaller economies will be at the mercy of global capital movements. Any other ideas?

Labour Lords - Laws 4 Lolly

No matter what organisation you belong to there's always a right and wrong way to do things. If you're not fighting for transparency and against corruption, you encourage it so the degeneracy of the Labour government should come as not surprise. Whether it be quango appointments or payments for peerages, the circumstantial evidence against New Labour has been overwhelming for some time. Therefore it comes as no surprise that 80% of Labour Lords succumbed to approaches requesting they amend laws in return for cash. Source. Indeed they boasted of their previous successes at influencing the law for their 'clients'. Others advertised access to senior government Ministers suggesting that the scope of the investigation into these allegations should be wide-ranging.

Contemptuous Attitude To Our Democracy

The Labour MP Paul Flynn is an idiot, so you'd think he'd be keen to try his hardest at Parliament. But no, he confirms his contempt for our democracy twice in his latest post.

On taking part in votes in the Commons.

Two minutes into Obama's speech, the division bell rang and we were all dragged from the mesmerising television pictures to vote in the Commons Chamber. The whips decided these things and their timing stank today.

Paul, there's plenty of people out there who want to represent the electorate in the House Of Commons - how about standing down? On voting to hide MP's expenses.

95% of the bad publicity has been thrown at Labour MPs. There is a siege mentality in Westminster that says whatever is published the press will again be reporting it hysterically. Why continue to feed the beast? I do not know which way I will vote - if I vote at all

If any reader wants to put on a small bet with me that Paul will vote against hiding expenses I will take that bet.

Update - In his comments to the post, Paul informs passing readers that 'this site is a forum for intelligent people'. Nice.

Politicians 3 Months Behind The Curve

On 30 June 2008 I called the recession well over three months before Gordon Brown first admitted it.

On 15 October I pointed out the benefits of 'ringfencing distressed banking assets' aka creating a bad bank. Three months later politicians on both sides of the Atlantic appear to be considering this measure at long last.

If this had been done on a timely basis (a little before when I suggested it), it would be an excellent way of wiping the slate clean, restoring confidence in the banking sector and allowing the private sector to take us forward. That time has passed.

So what next? On 10 December, I made the point (see comment three on this thread) that we were on "a slippery slope to state ownership of banks". This will represent another government mistake. How right I am about this will be clear by mid-March.

Shit List

Derek Draper - the 'mastermind' behind Labourlist had a forgettable debut on the small screen appearing alongside Tim Montgomerie the founder and editor of Conservative Home. After Channel Four were unable to open their home page during the interview, K G-M delighted in concluding the news with the information that the technical hitch was at Labourlist's end.

Speaking of Conservative Home, our party's grassroots website tracks all the respected opinion polls.



When we come to consider the impact of Derek Draper's Labourlist, we can measure it against the starting point shown above. As someone who has done a bit of political blogging in his time, I find Derek's self-confidence highly amusing. He seems to think that he can go in to bat for his political side without breaking sweat.

If Draper and his team continue to provide such a clear insight into the Labour party's thinking (or lack of it) I expect to see considerable improvement in the Conservative position.

Birmingham's Kinda Quiet These Days

Survey Results

The evolution of my blog poll during 2008 has been fascinating. At the start of the year - when all the London teen knifings were in the news - violent crime was right up there. I will give you my quick views on the top 3 in more detail



The Economy

Just two weeks on from a PBR that predicted Q4 economic growth of 0.75%, these government predictions have been shown to be massively and palpably wrong. Similarly bad news is that the new US president is no fan of capitalism and shares Gordon Brown's moronic belief (or is that line of least resistance) that massive additional government borrowing, populist bullying of the productive part of the economy and 'global solutions' are the way out of this mess. In the long run, we will only regain our previous position as a significant economic power by rewarding work and enterprise and massively reining in the size of the state. The actual direction of travel is ominous.

Welfare

Just as getting a job gets significantly more difficult becomes Labour has belatedly recognised that welfare dependency is a bad thing and started to reverse the something for nothing culture that they have defended for the last 11 years. Will the government be offering Norman Tebbit an apology?

Europe

In terms of my poll, this has become less prominent as the year has developed. Is that an air of resignation? The newly re-elected 'leadership' of the Conservative Party in Brussels offers nothing that enthuses me. To say that work on a European reform agenda is embryonic is far too polite. I can't see my efforts to assist the West Midlands delegation being too strenuous in the lead up to May 2009.