Ugandan Relations - Part 1

Full day's campaigning today assisted by a team of three international observers from Uganda. They are all members of the democratic opposition party and likened their situation to the MDC in Zimbabwe. Their President is also long-serving and has altered the constitution so that there is no limit to his term of office. He is openly corrupt. They are sick of the despot, but they risk imprisonment and worse in their fight for democracy.

As it's their first time outside Africa it's also interesting to get their initial thoughts on England. The mother of five said that she had seen white people before, but never so many at the same time. The "Chairman" opined that Birmingham, Heathrow and London look much the same as each other to him and reckoned he'd spotted some 150 year olds (the life expectancy in Uganda is 47). The "Speaker" is a great guy and is rightly upset that the Queen will be visiting Uganda in November and giving the sitting president a propaganda coup. I hope to do more detailed interviews with my assistants later in the week and maybe show them some sights away from the suburban terrain that we are covering as part of the campaign.

Lord Goldsmith's Predecessor Backs Campaign For Goldsmith To Stand Aside

There is an excellent article by Tom Harper in the Telegraph today about Attorney General Lord Goldsmith's role in the "loans for lordships" cases.

When I submitted my 10 Downing Street petition for approval a week ago (it took four days to get the nod), the potential conflicts of interest were already clear. Sir Ken Macdonald, the director of Public Prosecutions, had stood aside from this case because he was a member of the same chambers as the prime minister's wife. However, Lord Goldsmith had already clarified his intention to stay in post for constitutional reasons.

Lord Goldsmith's main line of argument for staying in post has been blown out of the water with the revelation that a law passed in 1997 allows the former Labour donor to delegate his powers to the Solicitor General.

In today's Telegraph, the Attorney General's predecessor, former Tory law chief, Lord Lyell of Markyate agrees that Peter Goldsmith should not personally take the decision over prosecutions in the cash-for-honours scandal.

As legal professionals have pointed out a judge would remove himself entirely from a case even if it only appeared that he had a conflict of interest. During the week, further potential conflicts have been uncoverred. Norman Baker Lib Dem MP for Lewes has revealed that Goldsmith has visited Israel at the expense of an organisation close to Lord Levy. Further, it appears more than likely that Blair will be required to appear as a witness. Goldsmith is a good friend of Blair, a fellow Cabinet member and was appointed as a Labour party peer in 1999 by Blair.

Do you agree he should stand aside? Then please sign and publicise the 10 Downing Street petition.

http://petitions.pm.gov.uk/seentobedone/

"Stand Aside Goldsmith" Petition Is Live

Do you feel strongly about having an independent judiciary?

Make your voice heard here and tell your friends.

Describe Yourself In Five Words

Travelling back to the UK to help out with the elections. Can't tell you where I'm going for tactical reasons. In the meantime, describe yourself in five words. I'll have a think on the plane.

Exceptionally Gloomy European Prognosis

Background

Reforming the EU so that we increase its accountability and legitimacy and reduce its corruption and intrusiveness is a major way that we can improve the lives of the British public. The EU as it stands is bad government and that is very damaging.

Yesterday, on St George's day, the Conservative Party Board voted in some disgraceful proposals for 2009 MEP selection that simultanaeously protected incumbency, reduced the field for new talent and struck at party democracy.

As a party we are committed to moving from being a small fish in a federalist grouping (EPP) to becoming a big fish in an EU reform grouping (MER)*. In this new world we need leaders, visionaries, networkers and reformers. This involves serious change. The proposals look like a dog's breakfast. Let's take a look.

* - If you think that this website looks threadbare, you'd be right. A telling example of our party's failure to plan for 2009.

Protecting Incumbency

Fact - Members will have no direct say in the reselection of incumbents. Incumbents will be ranked higher than any other candidates.

Response - I can't think of a time when measures to protect incumbency have been so inappropriate. The only reason I did not oppose the decision to form a new grouping in 2009 (rather than immediately) was that it was clear to me by their actions that the current Conservative delegation of MEPs was, as a group, not fit for purpose. Dead wood needs to go. Incumbents who are unable or unwilling to make a full contribution to a new EU Reform agenda are an obstacle to our future success in Europe.

Reducing The Field For New Talent

Fact - Should a vacancies arise in any region, women will take the highest non-incumbent slot.

Response - First of all this measure may even be illegal under EU law (see Article 13 of the Amsterdam Treaty). Putting that to one side, new blood is probably required for the new team that is being formed. The protection of incumbents (see above) severely limits our opportunities for this and is likely to discourage good candidates from presenting themselves. The fact that only women can take the top non-incumbent spot in each region chokes off further talent. A constituency chairman informs me that less than 10% of applications in 2004 in his region were from women. As someone who has worked in international business, this does not surprise me. Deliberately reducing the field of talent by about 90% is negligent and highly disrespectful to the important role that MEPs will have. For consistency, next time Cameron reshuffles, I want to see 10 women on the Tory front bench (I don't mean this by the way).

A Blow To Party Democracy

Fact - Members will have no direct say in the reselection of incumbents. Where high-placed slots exist, it will generally be the case that the candidates will have been pre-selected (all women).

Response - This is not democracy. It is nowhere near it. I will fight for democratic representation within my party.

A Personal View

Based in Prague as I am, I hear the voices of politicians and politicos in Czech Republic, Slovakia and the wider region. They describe to me how things look from their side of the fence, taking a leap in the dark to join the Conservatives in an untested grouping. They describe their deep misgivings about our Europhile Conservatives in Brussels and report to me how within their own ranks they are fighting people who are keen to keep the trappings of their EPP status. I've been telling them that things would change due to our party democracy and that we have the people to provide the real leadership that the new reform grouping requires. These proposals change all that and make me look like an idiot. In my personal life, I don't invite friends to a party that is going to be crap and I'm not going to do it in my political life.

Prognosis

A new grouping needs parties from five member states. To attract new partners the Conservative leadership needs

- to organise its partners and MEPs to work as a team
- a politically coherent vision
- the political courage to approach potential partners with unfashionable views (e.g. Poles in favour of the death penalty)

That's phase one. In order to be an effective voice and deliver on the reform agenda, we will need a visionary and energetic grouping. The Movement For European Reform was an ambitious project. These proposals condemn it to failure. They need to be strongly opposed by democrats and reformers within the Conservative Party.

Praguetory's Sister Kicks The London Marathon

Praguetory's sister is already known in the blogosphere for her card and memory skills. See here. But that's not her only talent.

The little sister ran the London marathon in 3 hours 53 minutes at the weekend placing her just outside the top 1000 female runners and 208th for her age group. Her and her husband were particularly delighted to beat Gordon Ramsey.

They managed to raise a four-figure sum for this charity. They said it was a great day, but terribly hot. I have been informed that the happy couple have run their last marathon.

My First 10 Downing Street Petition

When the police passed their files to the CPS on Friday containing allegations thought to relate to the 1925 Honours Act and perverting the course of justice, sensible commentators called for Lord Goldsmith to stand aside due to his numerous conflicts of interest. Blogged here and here. Over the weekend, Lord Goldsmith made it clear he has no intention to do so.



I have presented the above petition (click to enlarge) to the number 10 team for approval and will let you know if/when this goes live. It will be called the seentobedone petition as justice must be seen to be done. Other ideas to force the government's hand are of course welcomed. Go to comments box with your suggestions.

George & The Dragon

George is England's patron saint. Happy St Georges Day to all English readers. George slaying the dragon is a famous myth. Hence, the Old Town Square pub in Prague called George & The Dragon (don't go there - too busy, too expensive)

Who Or What Is The Dragon in 2007?

The dragon facing modern day Georges in England are those opposed to real democracy. The dragon is embodied in quangos, Labour leadership and to my deep shame Conservatives. Off the cuff, here are my top 10 (!) examples of anti-democratic action at home over the LAST MONTH.

1. State funding for political party proposals - Hayden Phillips proposals.
2. Removal of democratic choice re EU constitution - Tony Blair wriggles out of EU referendum promise
3. High level disrepect for legal institutions - Lord Goldsmith refuses to stand aside in the cash for peerages case
4. Removing members' say - Conservative Party tables anti-democratic proposals for MEP selections*
5. Enshrining secrecy - David McLean (Conservative MP!) tries to obtain exemptions for MPs from the freedom of information act
6. Taxpayer funding of incumbent MPs - Labour Party votes in £6m+ bung for sitting MPs
7. Electoral roll inaccuracies - Electoral Commission polling estimates at least 1 million and up to 3.5 million "ghost voters" on the election rolls.
8. Disrespect for democratic outcomes - Labour Party ignores wishes of its members.
9. Crony appointments 1 - Postal vote counting contract goes to Labour party supplier.
10. Crony appointments 2 - Gordon Brown's pollster under investigation.

* - Decision today.

Have you ever felt under siege? If you count yourself to be a democrat, you ought to. There is a big opportunity to be the party that trusts people and champions democracy. If the Conservative Party leadership blows this chance, the UK is in big trouble.

The Beeb Reports On First Round Of The French Elections

Nicolas Sarkozy storms into the second round of the French presidential elections with a significant advantage over Segolene Royale. Despite the fact that of the top four contenders, Royal is the most left-wing and Sarko is not the most right-wing, the Beeb manages to attack them both - from the left.

Both are controversial figures who have divided the French.

Mr Sarkozy is hated by the left as a reformer who many fear would change the French way of life by making the nation work harder and longer and by cutting back on its generous welfare state.

Ms Royal is also regarded with suspicion, seen as too authoritarian and conservative by some Socialists.

Source

Nice to see a high turnout of 85%.

The Kicking & Screaming Theory

There is a theory in certain circles that despite his assurances, Blair will not voluntarily leave office. I'm not persuaded, but as a bit of fun, you might want to vote in my poll. The boys in blue are starting to edge out the men in grey suits as the most likely heroes.

Stand Aside Lord Goldsmith

One aspect of government that all its citizens are subject to are the laws of the land enforced by the criminal justice system. If there is a lack of public confidence in the fairness of this system, respect for the bodies supposed to be managing law and order is lost and law and order itself may be undermined.

A conflict of interest is when someone in a position of trust has competing professional and/or personal interests. In the case of the legal system, where it is the public's confidence that is at risk, a perceived conflict of interest is just as important as an actual conflict of interest. This underlies the maxim that not only must justice be done but it must be seen to be done. This principle applies at all levels of the legal system. It is why the juror who mentions any connection with the defendant will probably be asked to stand down at a criminal trial.

This is all pretty standard stuff, so WHY THE HELL DOES IT NEED SPELLING OUT TO ATTORNEY GENERAL LORD GOLDSMITH THAT HE SHOULD STAND ASIDE?

Please feel free to add to this list of his conflicts of interest on the "Loans for Peerages" case passed to the CPS.

1. Goldsmith was appointed by Tony Blair who has been questioned in respect of this case.
2. Goldsmith has donated to the Labour Party. The case passed to the CPS is likely to have significant financial ramifications on that organisation.
3. The case passed to the CPS relates to entrance to an elite club of which Goldsmith is a member (The House Of Lords).
4. Said lordship was handed to Goldsmith by Tony Blair.
5. The Grauniad reported that Blair has influenced Goldsmith in the past.

Convinced yet? Some might say that his personal indiscretions and professional prevarications make Goldsmith generally unsuitable for his current role. Hat tip Iain Dale.

Note - the US Attorney Genera, Alberto Gonzales is coming under far greater pressure to go.

NHS Rant

Dr Rant gathers the views of a team of doctors at his site. He and his team have prepared a manifesto-style post on what should be done with the NHS. As someone who is interested in how taxpayer's money is spent, I was particularly interested in the things that Dr Rant says the NHS should stop. I don't know whether the list is in any order, but it's worth reviewing.

-Patsy Hewitt
-Tony Blair
-Gordon Brown
-Andy Burnham
-Liam Bryne
-Lord Hunt
-Sir Liam Donaldson
-Spin doctors being preferred to medical doctors.
-Wasting money on PFI
-Wasting money on management consultants
-Wasting money on managers
-Wasting money on redisorganisations
-Wasting money on computer projects
-Wasting money on useless wheezes such as walk in centres, "">independent sector treatment centres
-Wasting money on stillborn administrative idiocies
such as practice based commissioning and payment by results (which are arcane concepts, even to their authors.)
-Wasting money on useless ideas such as “choice” and “choose and book”
-Wasting money on NHS direct
-Wasting money pandering to the “worried well” rather than those who are sick
-Wasting money on clinical governance
-Wasting money on arm’s length QUANGOS such as NICE and NPSA and the modernisation agency
-Wasting money on unused and unwanted “guidelines”
-Wasting money paying out negligence claims
-Wasting money and peoples’ lives in useless schemes such as MMC and MTAS
-Wasting money training midwives and physiotherapists for no jobs at the end of their courses
-Wasting money on non jobs such as “five a day eating co-ordinators”
-Wasting time on meetings that reduce hours to minutes, and their participants to tears.
-Listening to people who pretend to know something about healthcare but actually don't
-specifically Alan Maynard, Julian Le Grande, Paul Corrigan, Simon Stevens, Alan Milburn, Lord Warner, and the false expertise of spinmeister management consultants.
-Pretending that it can deliver all healthcare to all people
-Pretending that patients can have whatever they want
-Pretending that the NHS is in any way "patient centred" or "patient focused" (It isn’t, never will be, and never should be for reasons I’ll demonstrate in a future rant)
-Dealing with well people.

The rest of the post is also worth a read. When you look at the problems in the NHS/Rant's manifesto it's hard to know where to start.

Monday 23rd April - Decision Time

I'd like to endorse Greg Hands' call to lobby grassroots representatives on the Party Board about how MEP selections are carried out. According to Conservative Home the recommendations on the table can be summarised as follows;

(1) Ordinary members lose their decisive say on MEP candidate selection;
(2) Incumbent MEPs - many of them unsupportive of David Cameron's pledge to leave the EPP - will be kept at the top of regional lists if a committee of party appointees and Association Chairmen agree;
(3) All retiring MEPs can only be replaced by women;
(4) Lower slots on the regional lists will be decided by all members.

The first three recommendations are all horribly anti-democratic and that they are being tabled should in itself be an embarassment to the party.



The three elected members of the party board towards whom party members who believe in democracy should be making representations are Charles Barwell (on the left of the picture), Emma Pidding (centre right) and Jeremy Middleton (on the right). Mail addresses are jeremy@middletonenterprises.com, emma.pidding@richardsoneyres.co.uk and mail@charlesbarwell.com.

I have to say that I don't know much of Emma or Jeremy. Charles Barwell is a fellow Brummie and Villa fan and I regularly check out his blog. On his home page he lists maintaining a united party as his number one area of focus. Like the other members of the Board he has an opportunity on Monday to prevent a resolution that would cause serious disunity in the party.

If the party leadership is looking for a clause four moment, this could be their chance. However, supporting these anti-democratic measures is indefensible and would be a terrible horse for them to back.

Vaughan - One Day Cricket's Emile Heskey

In yesterday's Daily Telegraph, Derek Pringle says about Michael Vaughan

"He is not a one-day natural, something England have spent 85 matches finding out."

Vaughan's woeful batting stats show this "discovery" should have been made a long time ago.


Just as football strikers should keep or lose their place based on their scoring record (has there ever been an international striker for a major footballing nation to have a worse scoring ratio than Emile's 5 goals in 43?) batsmen should be judged on how many runs they score and how quickly. I'd like to understand the dynamics that have kept Vaughan in the team. Is he not embarassed?

A strike rate of less than 75 is unworthy of any international one-day batsman in the modern game and 80 is par. Vaughan's is 67!!! and his batting average is just as poor. He has never scored a one day century - think of some of the international minnows he's played against. He took 20 balls to get off the mark the other day. Leading nations score between 5 and 6 an over in one-dayers, which means that having passengers like Vaughan put the rest of the team under pressure. Check out the Aussie player profiles. All of their batsman and all-rounders have noticably better stats than Vaughan. I have been arguing for years that he shouldn't be in the team. Vaughan's cajoling to his squad this World Cup has been painful. Like being told by the class dunce that you need to pull your socks up.

Twas ever thus for England. Check this scorecard back in Nasser Hussain's day. He was another top Test player who should never played one dayers. Despite all four top batsmen scoring well, India almost reached our total. The only way England can win one dayers is if our opponents collapse or Pietersen is causing damage. Not good enough. Pick another team and start by looking which players are scoring in 20 20. Vaughan - ffs resign from the One Day scene - do it for your country - you're roobbish. And Fletcher needs to be kicked, too.

Flat Taxes Creeping Westwards

It’s a firmly entrenched stereotype that the former Soviet states in Central and Eastern Europe look to the West for innovative trends and ideas. One notable exception is flat tax, almost untested in the West, which has become ever more popular in Central and Eastern Europe.

The purest flat tax policy was introduced in Slovakia with a 19% flat rate applied to income, corporate and consumption taxes. Since its introduction unemployment has halved and with recent reported GDP growth in Slovakia hitting 9.8%, it’s no surprise that Czech heads have been turned. In fact, over the last year when Czech professionals have found out that I’m interested in politics the most common question they’ve asked is when I think they will have flat tax.

In recent weeks, the Czech government has put a watered down flat tax proposal on the table. The new headline rate is 15%, but because this is applied to "super-gross income" (including employer contributions) it is estimated to equivocate to a 23% rate and of course its simplicity is diminished by this gimmick. Czech Business Weekly was disappointed with the timidity of the reform and led with the headline "It ain’t Slovakia", but also speculated that this reform may be a first step.

Former ODS finance minister and political big beast Vlastimil Tlusty is insisting on a full-blooded reform package exactly in line with the ODS election manifesto. I have sympathy with his view, but of course the ODS are leading the most fragile of coalitions. The ODS leadership are gambling by linking the approval of this legislation with the existence of the government so there are some interesting times ahead. Should the legislation be approved, it will take hold in January 2008 and flat taxes will take a further step westwards.

Flat taxes are not on the radar in British mainstream politics and I realise that they are not about to be, but the impact of overseas reform on UK industry is already noticeable if you follow these things. Although those in the Conservative Party who are looking for a shopping list of Tory tax cuts right now are being tactically naïve, we should be able to promise to simplify the British tax system – there’s plenty to go at there.

Hazel Blears Facebook Invite

There are likely to be two important vacancies opening at the top of the Labour Party quite soon - and the Deputy Leadership is also going to be contested. When Hazel agreed to be my facebook friend (or was it the other way around?), I decided to give her a friendly hand in her quest for the Deputy Leadership tiara. She's a great friend to have as she keeps in regular touch. Here's an invite attached to her latest missive.

-----------------------------

Time and Place Date: Wednesday, April 25, 2007
Time: 6:30pm - 8:00pm
Location: 1st Floor Lecture Theatre, Queen Annes Business Centre,
Street: 28 Broadway, SW1H 9JX
City/Town: London

Description
Hazel Blears MP will be giving a lecture to SERA members, as part of our Deputy Leadership Lecture series.

This is a great opportunity to hear from the candidates (Note 1) and express your views to them on the importance of environmental policy (Note 2), and what you think are the key issues for the third term Labour government and the next 10 years. Do they support personal carbon quotas? How would they solve the energy gap? Are they in favour of building new nuclear power stations? How will they ensure implementation across the board of a positive environmental strategy? (Note 3) This is your opportunity to explore these areas and any others of your choosing with all (Note 4) those wishing to be a part of leading our party.

GUESTS ARE ALLOWED TO BRING FRIENDS TO THIS EVENT!

---------------------------------

Note 1 - candidates plural? (bit misleading)
Note 2 - this makes me want to go
Note 3 - I wonder whether they would just send an email in advance outlining their basic position so we can prepare our questions.
Note 4 - All?I doubt that we can expect Brown, Meacher, McDonnell, Benn, Blears, Cruddas, Hain, Harman & Johnson to be in attendance?

Interestingly, I am slated to be London on this evening, although I am supposed to be playing chess for one of the oldest clubs in the capital... I think I'll play chess.

Health Of The Nation

I've set up a health section in my links bar. A regular commenter here, Mens Sana is a consultant in the NHS. He/she has just started blogging and Mens Sana's commenting style translates to his or her blog we can expect posts that are honest, direct and opinionated. The first post is about doctor's pay - a nice starter for ten.

The wildly successful NHS blog doc - Dr Crippen does some great posts (I especially like his anecdotes) but is also performing a unique role in rounding up the best of the medical blogs.

I've recently become aware of Dr Grumble, another NHS doctor who is a favourite curmudgeon of mine. I particularly like the way that he campaigned strongly against MMC/MTAS and the rapier wit in a recent post about being right all along.

I hope that she won't be offended if I say that Dr Michelle Tempest is an old favourite of mine. In fact, I believe that more than one of her posts have affected me in a positive way. I'm sure I can't say that about many bloggers.

My knowledge of the health sector is fragmented. I'm trying to learn more about the NHS. Does anyone have any other suggested links?

Name To A Handle & A Face To A Name

I've been pencilled in for an 18 Doughty Street appearance in early May. Like many bloggers, I am probably more eloquent in writing than in person (which in my case means I'm really in trouble). Just to dampen visual expectations, I'm a short, pasty-faced bloke with a whiny Brummie accent - if I wasn't balding I'd look younger than 32. My enthusiasm can come across as hyperactivity. Otherwise, I'm just a normal bloke.

I harbour fantasies of a verbal jousting with Alex Hilton, but the truth is that the topic for discussion is going to be local election results which will bring out the not-so-inner political geek in me. I'm slightly concerned about all the things that I disagree with Iain Dale about coming to the surface live on air. I'm by no means experienced with the medium of TV so any well-meaning practical advice would be gratefully received (should I wear my McLenin T-shirt?). On-topic, I'm going to a conference on arguing this week.

Social Conservatism

Discussing social conservatism is a minefield, but discuss it we must. Finally (and I mean finally) a consensus is forming that social attitudes are a root cause of the malaise in public services and damaging trends in government dependency, but as for responding to this with practical policies the Tories remain some way off. Matt Sinclair does a truly superb piece on this theme. In my opinion it is stunning both in its imagery and in its perceptiveness. I agree that an incredible challenge lies ahead for Cameron's Conservatives, (which I hope will be informed by IDS and other specialists) but one that can not be shirked.

Matt manages to combine intellectual rigour and an engaging style in his writing. I think this is why he topped the young conservative poll that I ran in January. Elsewhere, I fully support the call he made in February at Conservative Home for Young Conservatives to explore and develop their political ideology. I understand that Matt has now left the LSE for pastures new, but I expect him to continue to make a significant contribution to right-thinking ideas in the future. A star in the making, I'd suggest.

Kasparov Kaptured

I have always followed Russian politics closely. Visiting Moscow in 1998 and again in 2002 strengthened my interest. They say that Russians like strong leaders, but I have been increasingly unhappy with the authoritarian rule of Vladimir Putin. Reading Putin's Russia published by Anna Politkovskaya in 2004 was the straw that broke the camel's back for me. Anna Politkovskaya was assassinated late last year.

When in 2005, Garry Kasparov retired from chess to concentrate on politics with this salvo

"In chess I have done all I could and even more. Now I intend to use my intellect and strategic thinking in Russian politics. ... I will do all I can to oppose Putin's dictatorship."

Kasparov's mission was a liberal and libertarian one with individual freedoms at the core of the message. I was right behind him. So I was a little disappointed to hear of him coining it from corporate chess displays in the US shortly after the launch of his new career and wondered quietly to myself whether he had the guts to follow through. It appears he has. See here and here. As Garry says, this is one game he cannot afford to lose and I believe that he is right to pull support from across the political spectrum - replacing tyranny with real democracy is more important than arguments between the left and right.

Tories Select Energetic Local Woman To Fight Birmingham Northfield

Readers may recall my interest in a safe (?) Labour-held seat - "Birmingham Northfield". On that thread, the 2005 PPC (Vicky Ford) said that she agreed that the seat could fall to a good local candidate with time to their ground work. In 2005, as with most Birmingham candidates, Vicky was selected far too late. Therefore, it is encouraging that we have selected early this time.

The winner of the selection process was Keely Rogers aged 25 and although I haven't met her, we have many mutual friends. She is local and I believe she stood in the 2004 council elections in one of the Northfield wards. I remember being amused at this article where the hack describes 22 year old Keely making a terrifyingly composed speech whilst being characteristically drerogatory about her accent. Note to London journos. That's what a Brummie accent sounds like and it's a plus if you want to relate to people and win an election in this neck of the woods. Good to hear that she describes herself as a right-winger - that will help too.

Keely is a good, local candidate and has plenty of time to make a mark. I wish her well and hope to assist with her campaign.

Insulting The Electorate Competition

Norwich North MP Ian Gibson was a little unfortunate when comments he made about the prevalence of diabetes in Norfolk were taken as a slur on his constituents.

Here's a good one. Labour council candidate Bill Lees had this to say about the inhabitants of the Birmingham suburb of Kings Heath.

"...legions of plug ugly, baseball-capped and ski-panted mingers from Kings Heath..."

Source. Bill is standing for election in the ward of Moseley and Kings Heath! Rather than apologising he is going with the context line. Has anyone got any similar examples of politicians insulting their electorate?

An Election Appeal

A girl advertised on the Internet that she was having a house party and attracted 200 guests. I don't expect to be that successful, but here's my internet appeal.

I'm going to hire a car and will be doing some intense political campaigning throughout the West Midlands between Thursday 26 April and Monday 30 April (when Ms PT arrives in the UK). I have an outline of what I'll be doing and I believe working as a team gets things done better and more enjoyably.

If you'd like to join me on the trail on any given day to assist the Tory cause/share political gossip that doesn't get put on the site, please mail me on praguetory@googlemail.com. We might even do a few video blogs.

The Labour Manifesto

As we plumb towards 10 years of Labour government, their record is laid bare for examination and their usual ploy of blaming the Tories doesn't wash. The people behind Tory Radio have had the splendid idea to look at Labour's 1997 manifesto and compare promises to reality. Not pretty, but I recommend a look.

Do You Like Solitude?

Just spent a week in Slovakia. We usually go there for Easter. We got the blessing of the local priest for our marriage and we sorted out the wedding reception, too. Being in Slovakia is a good chance to recharge and get new ideas. One came to mind which I hope to develop after the May elections.

This video is from just outside Ms PT's home village where we stay. Due to the contours of the land, this spot is completely private and can't be seen from the road. A stream runs along the meadow and I love the forested hillside that surrounds the plot. I like solitude and beauty. One day I will build a cottage here. The smells, sights and sounds of nature will be inspirational. It will be a great retreat to have. If people are interested in more posts about Eastern Slovakia, I would be happy to oblige. Let me know if you prefer me to talk politics.

May Elections In Birmingham

Hello - I'm back. Worryingly, readership figures appear unaffected by my absence.

Due to boundary changes, in 2004, all 120 seats in Birmingham were contested which resulted in the Conservative/Lib Dem coalition taking over from a Labour administration that had been in charge for 20 years. On May 3rd elections will take place in each of the city's 40 wards. Brummietory has a more detailed understanding of the political landscape than me and his predictions are a reasonable stab showing little movement from May 2006, but electoral progress due to 2004 being the base year. Here's a table showing Labour's decline and the rise of the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.


Predictions

Given that just a third of the seats are being contested, it is always unlikely that you will see seismic shifts in the political composition of the council in May, but Labour are likely to lose seats at the expense of the Tories. In a bit of a cop-out, my predictions on how the Tories will do are based around national polling. Emboldened are seats that would be gains.

8 Safe Seats - Sutton (X4), Edgbaston, Harborne, Bartley Green & Bournville
36% - Add Brandwood, Billesley, Weoley Castle & Northfield
38% - Erdington, Longbridge & Kings Norton
40% - Quinton
42% - Oscott
46% - Tyburn

I'm going to predict that the Tories will poll 41% nationally. I make Oscott a 50/50 chance and Quinton a 70/30 chance. Even if we don't win those two, 15 seats should make us the biggest party in Birmingham which will be worth celebrating.

Targets -

1. Tories to win 16 seats or more
2. Tories to win in popular vote (this didn't happen in May 2006 council elections in Brum despite a good set of results)
3. Labour to fail to win a single ward in the Labour held Parliamentary constituencies of Edgbaston (four Tories), Selly Oak (three Tories and one Lib Dem) , Hall Green (we're relying on Respect and Lib Dems here) and Northfield (four Tories).

Labour's Worst Case Scenario

Just for fun, but here's how Labour end up with just seven seats from the forty on offer.

Certain

The Tories have eight safe seats in the bag (see above).
The Libs will win the four Yardley seats, Hall Green, Perry Barr and Selly Oak

Running Total - Labour down to 25 seats

Highly Likely

lose four Con/Labour marginals up to and including Northfield
lose to Respect in Sparkbrook
lose to Lib Dems in Bordesley Green, Moseley

Running Total - Labour down to 18 seats

Highly Plausible

lose a further five Con/Labour marginals up to and including Oscott
lose to Lib Dems in Hodge Hill, Aston, Springfield

Running Total - Labour down to 10 seats

Long Shots

lose to Nationalists in Shard End
lose to Conservatives in Tyburn & Handsworth Wood (due to split Labour vote)

7 seats - BINGO

Big Picture

It's fairly likely that Labour will lose about a third of the seats they hold this time and the same can be predicted for 2008, meaning they will soon be contesting second place with the Lib Dems. People have long memories in politics and so after the electoral fraud and Labour's craven response that marred the 2004 local elections, no coalition in Birmingham involving Labour is conceivable for a generation. If you're a Labour activist in Birmingham, I recommend 2020 vision - it's the soonest you'll be having another sniff of power.

Conservative: what does it mean?

Conservative: a definition

1. Favouring traditional views and values; tending to oppose change.

2. Traditional or restrained in style

3. Moderate; cautious

4. Tending to conserve; preservative: the conservative use of natural resources.

Rock and Roll!!!!

Hardly Athletic Get Off To Winning Start

Hardly Athletic 2 Sunny Days 1

Ably captained by Robert, Hardly Athletic won their first ever game. Our lack of kit lulled our opponents and goals from Dean in the first half and Bobby in the second half from a penalty were enough to seal the win.


Here's a picture of me surrounded by the men in orange. Where are my team-mates? That's right, they were in the pub (see below).



After a walk to the pub that was arguably more tiring than the game itself, some of the team settled in at Fraktal Bar for a celebratory pivo. I'm off for a week. There may or may not be some guest posts in the meantime. Have a great Easter.

Party Funding Update

Hayden Philips Has Sent Me An E-Mail

It sets out some (very) outline proposals. Hayden's done his bit and has passed the buck to the main parties. On many levels, the principal proposals of the Party Funding Review are craven. Lots of minutiae bothers me such as his use of the term "pence per vote funding" when pound per vote funding would be more accurate, or his utterly amateurish ideas on enforcement of donation limits, or his manifold proposed exceptions in the rules for Labour, his wishy-washy ideas on spending... I could go on.

Big Picture

But, let's go big picture. Conservative estimates place the current amount of state funding of political parties at about £20m. In December 2006 a Communications Research survey found that just 9% of all respondents thought that more money should be given to political parties to fund their activities. What does Hayden think?

Financial Instability

Worryingly, the words stability/instability appear eight times in his report. For example, in the section "Why Public Funding?" we have this delight

"Financial instability is the enemy of healthy politics, and an injection of funds is merited if we are able to maintain public confidence in our democracy".

Allow me to rephrase.

"As a results of profligacy at election times caused by short termism the Labour Party is virtually bankrupt. Public confidence in our democracy has nothing to do with the amount of money spent at election times, but I can't find any other decent arguments for this steal"

Hayden Phillips suggests the additional public cost per annum will be £20 - £25m (see section 2). Hayden states that the future of party funding should be

"built on a broad consensus between the parties"

and suggests

"an agreement must be fair and sustainable. To that end it must tackle the two issues that remain in contention between the parties:

- the design of limit on donations: and
- controls on party spending"

As taxpayers, we are a party to the agreement (we get the *expletive* bill) and I can assure Hayden that these aren't the only issues that remain in contention.

What Would I Do?

What would I personally do? I would make it illegal for political parties to be in debt (no overdrafts, no private loans, no bank loans). That would eliminate financial instability. If a party hasn't raised enough money from their supporters for a campaign, they have to cut their cloth accordingly. Cap donations and make them more transparent by all means, but the state should otherwise keep their nose out of party business.

Real World

In the real world, Hayden Phillips has delivered a dog's breakfast on which the main parties could well struggle to negotiate an agreement. If they do, the only loser will be the taxpayer. Therefore, I want to see Philip Oppenheim's No Public Funding campaign swing into action and 18 Doughty Street and Conservative Home to oppose the stinking pile that has been put on the table. Power to the people. Hat tip anoneumouse at the Anglo-saxon Chronicle for the graphic.

Blog Round Up

All's back to normal. Blogging in the style of another blogger is fun for a day, but do it for an extended period could drive you nuts. I think I managed to synchronise with the target quite well. If readers found this fun (and readers were unanimous when I asked them whether I asked whether I should continue with my Tom Watson posts - I was the only one who voted against!), I might be persuaded to do it again at some point in the distant future.

Dizzy Thinks Then Posts

Dizzy has hit on a rich vein of form of late. I recommend all his recent posts, but especially his most recent on the Falklands War where the comment thread shows why the Left are unfit to run the country. They are? Damn.

Crime Statistics Scandal

Just as seriously, Tony Sharp has uncovered a crime statistics scandal. Not only have recorded detections been manipulated, but a great deal of scarce police resource has been misplaced in the process. Can't wait until the police bloggers get hold of that story - they'll be all over it like a rash. In my judgment there's a big chance that this one will hit the mainstream. And whilst we are on the theme of policing, the Tories are unveiling some excellent proposals.


Unsolved Riddle

Still nobody has succeeded in my guess the politician's quote puzzler which was set a few days ago. Who said this.

"I do think certain individuals are disposed to crime because of their genetic inheritance"

There are some clues on the other thread. As an additional clue, I will add that the politician wrote the text in his autobiography. Like my imaginary friend Hamer Shawcross I'm taking an Easter break. I'll be away from Thursday so I am looking for guest posters. I have a few lined up, but if you're interested, just let me know.

Ageism

Over the course of today, a fellow blogger has called me a "foolish foolish boy" and "my son". This is ageist nonsense and it is disgusting to see these type of attacks from the self-styled Left. Just to remind him of his bigoted prejudice Praguetory has decided to set up a reorientation programme called "Learn to love the young". Until this blogger mends his ways and promises not to use ageist abuse, I'll be calling him gramps.

Praguetory realises that teaching an old dog new tricks can be difficult, but is prepared to give it a go for the sake of the blogging communitee

Update

Poll is 4 - 1. I'm waiting for yay or nay to get to 10 before I do or don't post my next instalment.

Update II

Manic's has finally noticed that his post repeats itself. Would it be mean-spirited to suggest that this could have something to do with his age?

Happy Palm Sunday

Not much blogging today. In a minute I'm off to church for Palm Sunday. From 9.30 a group of us will be walking through the Mala Strana (Little Bank) part of town. I'll see if I can squeeze in an early lunch after church. Meeting an Icelandic Conservative at 1 for a coffee to discuss setting up a blog.

Then at 4 I'll be in the last training session before the start of "Hardly Athletic"'s inaugural football season (do you like the logo?). I wanted to sponsor the team, but one unnamed player objected to running around with Praguetory on his back.

At 6.30 I'm meeting up with a couple who are visiting Prague. Me and Ms PT met Jitka at the car rental place last time we were in Birmingham. The coincidences were incredible. They will be getting married in Prague on the same day as us (Sep 8th) and he also proposed this Christmas. Like me and Ms PT they started dating in August and he enjoys reading books and is typically English according to Jitka. Ok, that's all the coincidences so far, but as they (by chance) booked themselves in one of the closest hotels to where we live, we've agreed to meet up and find out what else we have in common. So far I've seen two April fool gags - none here I'm afraid. Laters.